A surprise snowstorm may cast a ghostly white across the landscape in the Northeastern U.S. late Friday and into the day on Saturday. The exact outcome of the storm will hinge on many factors, but most of the short-range weather forecasting models are indicating some type of precipitation from the Carolinas through Maine this weekend. Many areas will likely start out with precipitation in the form of rain with a change-over to wet snow. While locations directly along the coast may miss out on the snow as warmer ocean waters influence temperatures there, locations closer to and just to the west of the I-95 corridor from Baltimore up through New England will have the best chances of seeing the first snow of the season. Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston all could see a change from rain to snow. Snowfall totals will generally be a few inches to as much as 6’’ in the mountains; accumulations should be reserved to grassy surfaces as temperatures stay above or just near the freezing mark, however, any heavy bursts of snow could cover roadways. Higher elevations have the greatest chance of seeing a slushy accumulation on the roads. As is typical of coastal storms, a deviation in the forecasted track of the storm east or west by just 50 miles or more will greatly alter the outcome of the storm. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted by the National Weather Service for northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey.

The forecast isn’t as scary as it seems since the snow will be favorable for cold weather categories like comfort foods, snow removal products, and heavy outerwear. Cold weather apparel will do well as consumers rush to find extra layers of clothing to wear and keep them warm because this will be a “Chiller Night(s)” for Halloween festivities (Yes, that was a lame attempt at a reference to Michael Jackson’s Thriller and I apologize). Temperatures in the Northeast will trend the coldest in 9 years for the period of October 28th to the 31st. Fortunately, store traffic should not be impacted too severely as the snow is expected to stick only on grassy surfaces.

With the release of Britain’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) September 2011 Retail Sales Report last week there has been a lot of talk about the weather’s role in influencing sales. It’s true, there are many factors that influence retail sales, but weather, unlike the global economy and consumer sentiment, is one factor that retailers can actually leverage and use to their advantage.  Had stores like John Lewis known that September 2011 was going to be warmer than normal, they may have planned to reduce inventory on autumn ranges, or Tesco may have opted to order more bottled water and barbeque foods than comfort foods like stews and hot beverages. A single decision based off of the weather can lead to millions in increased sales for retailers even during times plagued with a plethora of economic headwinds.

So, what did our forecast for September 2011 in the United Kingdom say a year ago? For the United Kingdom as a whole our forecast was for a warmer, above normal September with less precipitation than last year and that’s not too far off from what actually happened (see graphs above).  Not too shabby for a forecast made a year ago. In last year’s report we even called out week 2 as being the only week in September that would trend cooler than last year and that the 1st and 3rd retail weeks of the month would be the only weeks to trend wetter than last year. What actually happened is depicted in the chart below where blue blocks represent cooler temperatures than last year and green blocks represent weeks that were wetter than the comparable week of last year.  Using these year-on-year comparisons, retailers are able to leverage the weather and make more informed inventory and marketing decisions as just a -1 degree C difference in weekly year-on-year temperatures can greatly impact the amount of product sold, for example, for every -1C in weekly year-on-year temperatures there is typically a +2% increase in hot soup category sales during the cold weather season.

The British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) September 2011 Retail Sales Monitor Report places heavy blame on the weather for less than stellar retail sales results, especially for clothing. According to the ONS, clothing and footwear sales volumes were down -2.1% from last year. Meanwhile, the warmer weather, especially late in the month was cited as a boost for food and drink categories. Many of the same conclusions were drawn from our report issued a year ago, the following are some comparisons between our report and the BRC’s report:

Similarly, the forecast for the United States played out rather nicely as shown in the graphs below. We forecasted an above normal, but slightly cooler than last year September and that’s what happened. In fact, our forecast pinned September 2011 as the 5th warmest in 19+ years, it was actually the 4th warmest.

With this year-ahead guidance, retailers were able to anticipate that, for the country overall, sales of seasonal Autumn categories will have changed slightly over last year as temperatures were projected to be slightly cooler than last year (cooler is better for Autumn categories). Seeing that temperatures were projected to be above normal in September 2011, retailers would have been wise to be lean on inventories of cool weather products like sweaters, long-sleeved shirts, boots, and heaters. Analysis of 30 years of retail same-store-sales data shows that a -1F change in temperature for September overall can have a +1.1% impact on U.S. retail sales, which is huge when considering the volume of retail trade.

When the world is filled with so many uncertainties, why leave the weather to chance when there’s something that can be proactively done to prepare for what’s ahead? The technology to forecast weather a year-ahead is here and the forecast has proven skill. Although year-ahead weather forecasting may seem like “hocus pocus” to some (as a Meteorologist, I’ve been accused of witchcraft on almost a daily basis), but our forecasts have given hundreds of clients advanced insight and placed them in a position to leverage the weather rather than be a victim.

U.S. SEPTEMBER 2011 SUMMARY: Warmer than normal conditions were prominent at the start and end of the month, while the middle of the month brought a taste of Fall to the North Central and East. The West, however, managed to stay warm and dry through most of the month with more Summer-like weather in many areas that were cool during the Summer months. The Northwest was unusually dry as well as the South Central states where severe drought conditions are ongoing. The Northeast was the complete opposite as the rain was seemingly endless. The 1^st day of the retail September was marked by Hurricane Irene making landfall in New Jersey and near New York City before accelerating to the north. Widespread power outages and flooding were reported from NJ to ME in Irene’s wake as +6” of rain fell over a vast area. As residents and businesses were finishing clean-up from Irene, another pesky tropical disturbance, Tropical Storm Lee, formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Lee dumped flooding rain from Louisiana northward along the Appalachian Mountains into the Northeast. For some in the Northeast Lee was the straw that broke the camel’s back as additional +6” of rain caused swollen rivers to spill over their banks resulting in some of the worst flooding since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. Following Lee, the faucet could not be shut off in the Northeast as a parade of stalled frontal boundaries kept the region shrouded in clouds and showers for a majority of the time.

Hurricane Irene resulted in at least 1 day of lost retail trade at the very start of the month as many businesses shut their doors as she made landfall in the Northeast. Home centers and discounters gained the most from Irene as clean-up supplies, portable generators and bottled water were in high demand. Mall-based stores and discounters will have had a negative impact from Irene as consumers shifted their focus from apparel shopping to storm necessities. Clean-up categories like wet/dry vacuums, tarps, and paint will have continued to be strong through at least the middle of September as remnants from Tropical Storm Lee caused more flooding. Warm, moist air in the East was abruptly replaced with much colder, Fall-like weather during Week 3 which was a huge positive for Fall seasonal categories. The cold weather extended into part of Week 4 helping to drive demand for items like fire logs, hot soups, and mouse traps in the North Central states. Fall categories were a hard sell in the West where warm and dry weather favored Summer consumables like ice cream, cold beverages, sun care, car wash/wax, and other outdoor categories.

U.K. SEPTEMBER 2011 SUMMARY: Following an abnormally cool Summer, temperatures finally turned warmer than normal in the U.K. The 1^st and 2^nd weeks trended warmer than normal, but the biggest story was the very mild weather during the final week of the month which sent people flocking to the beaches to soak up the warm and dry weather. More Autumn-like weather could be found during the 3^rd and 4^th weeks of the month when temperatures were closer to normal. While much of England and Wales trended drier than last year, areas to the north saw more unsettled weather including a few tropical disturbances. Remnants from Hurricane Irene brought heavy rain and wind to Scotland during the 1^st week of September. During the middle of the month, Post-Tropical Storm Katia brought more heavy rain and severe gales to Scotland, Northern England and Ireland. Katia caused localized flooding in central Scotland and some power outages.

Unfortunately the arrival of more Summer-like weather in late September is a negative for retail sales as this time of year is focused on Autumn categories and drier weather in September is a negative for footfall as consumers spend more time outdoors instead of shopping. Luckily, there was pent-up demand for many warm weather categories like ice cream, cold beverages, and sun care following a cool, dreary Summer. The final week of the month will have seen double to even triple digit surges in demand for Summer consumables. More seasonable weather during weeks 3 and 4 provided opportunities for Autumn categories, although demand will have been softer during week 3 as temperatures were warmer than last year. Flooding and damage from the various tropical disturbances in the North of the U.K. will have increased footfall at home centers and demand for clean-up categories.

G-20 SEPTEMBER 2011 SUMMARY: G-20 temperatures trended +1.1C warmer than last year with a majority of the warmer weather in Europe, Russia and Canada. Europe was warm and dry for much of September with Summer-like conditions prevailing. Despite the abnormally warm weather, parts of the Alps recorded their earliest snowfall on record around mid-month. Cooler weather presided over eastern China, Mongolia, South Aftrica, and parts of the Middle East.  Typhoon Talas struck Japan early in the month and was the deadliest cyclone to hit the country since 2004. Hong Kong’s stock market and businesses shut down as Typhoon Nesat brought threatening weather late in September. Monsoon rains across Pakistan and Thailand caused flooding and destroyed millions of acres of cropland.

Very warm and settled weather in Europe favored Summer consumables over more seasonal Autumn categories. Milder weather in Canada delayed the start of the season for Autumn categories. Seasonal categories were more favorable in places like eastern China and Mongolia where temperatures trended cooler than last year. Businesses in Japan and parts of China, including Hong Kong, experienced at least 1 day of disruption as Typhoon’s Talas and Nesat, respectively, brought flooding rain and damaging winds. Clean-up supplies will have seen a rise in demand in the cyclones’ wake.

U.S. AUGUST 2011 SUMMARY: For the 2^nd month in a row, the U.S. as a whole trended the hottest in 19+ years during the retail August. The South Central U.S. and Southern Rocky Mountains were the main areas of hot weather, and even the Western U.S. saw some hotter weather after several months of below normal temperatures. While it was still relatively warm in the East and North Central U.S. temperatures were generally cooler than last year with a favorable cool period during weeks 2 and 3. Wet weather was mainly confined to the Northeast where it was the wettest August in 19+ years, while the rest of the U.S. trended drier. Drought expanded in the South Central U.S. while too much rain in the Northeast increased flood risks. In fact, Philadelphia, PA broke the record for all-time wettest month ever even before Hurricane Irene struck. Speaking of Hurricane Irene, she struck fear in the hearts of consumers from South Carolina to Maine during the final week of the retail August as she threatened to bring historic floods and damage. Irene made landfall as a category 1 storm near Cape Lookout, NC on the final day of the retail August, see her track below.

Hurricane Irene left an impression on retailers as many stores closed early or saw significantly reduced traffic on the final day of the retail month when most people are typically shopping. Consumers shifted focus from Back-to-School shopping to preparing for a hurricane. Home centers will have benefited most from the increase in demand for plywood, plastic sheeting, flashlights and batteries. Malls and department stores were some of the hardest hit retailers as consumers flocked to grocery and discount stores for staples like milk, bread, and bottled water in a pre-blizzard-like frenzy. Earlier in August, the weather was favorable for malls and department stores in the North Central and Eastern U.S. as cooler weather during retail weeks 2 and 3 boosted Back-to-School shopping; even the South Central U.S. saw a brief respite from the hot weather during week 2. With Summer finally awakening in the West, pent-up demand for Summer categories would have spurred spending, although at reduced profit margins for retailers as August is typically a clearance month.

U.K. AUGUST 2011 SUMMARY: August started off relatively mild for the U.K. as a warmer 1^st week broke a 12-week streak of cooler Y-O-Y temperatures. The warmer trends were short-lived though, as cooler weather returned for the middle of the month, but milder weather ended the month. Despite the driest August in 4 years, parts of Scotland were completely drenched in the 1^st half of the month. In fact, some areas in Northeast Scotland received 5 times the normal rainfall for this time of year. The weather turned drier for the latter part of the month, but a storm system during the Summer Bank Holiday weekend brought showers to the Southern U.K. and more persistent rain to Scotland.

Although temperatures were slightly warmer than last year, this was still the 4^th coldest retail August in 19+ years. Cooler than normal temperatures would have favored Autumn categories, especially during the cooler mid-month weeks. Mild weather at the start of the month was favorable as pent-up demand for Summer categories would have spurred sales, although at decreased profit margins for retailers. Cooler than normal weather was generally favorable for retailers, however, the headwinds this month may have muted the positive impacts of weather. The worst rioting since the 1980s in Britain resulted in early store closings and a general dampening of consumer sentiment. Many retailers faced costly losses and repairs as they were the victims of looting and damage. Additionally, concerns over the global economy will have also dampened consumer sentiment, adding to the pinch at the cash register.

G-20 AUGUST 2011 SUMMARY: G-20 temperatures were cooler than last year with slightly cooler trends in the southern parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe and warmer Y-O-Y trends in Australia and Western Europe.  Typhoon Muifa struck regions of Asia in late July and early August allowing for large amounts of precipitation and strong winds. In mid-August, New Zealand experienced some of the coldest and harshest winter weather conditions in decades, leading to mass power outages.

Warmer weather in Western Europe and Central Canada was beneficial for Summer clearance categories. Winter clearance categories in eastern Australia will have been negatively impacted from warmer year-on-year weather, but Spring Categories will have been positively impacted due to an earlier start. An unusual blast of winter weather in New Zealand would have benefited cold weather categories at the expense of early Spring products.  Cooler and drier weather in the southern parts of Africa will have yielded an increase in sales for Winter categories, while warmer and wetter weather in southern Brazil will have negated Winter categories.

Just a week ago, the East Coast was gearing up for Hurricane Irene which proved to be quite the foe for many from the Carolinas through New England. Now, we’re faced with another tropical threat, however, this time we have not 1, but 2 tropical systems to worry about.

Tropical Depression 13, possibly becoming Tropical Storm Lee later today, will be the first to make a run at the U.S. mainland. Currently, TD #13 is meandering about the Gulf of Mexico, south of Louisiana. Parts of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to just near the western tip of the Florida Panhandle are starting to see the bands of showers and thunderstorms. Flooding will be the biggest threat from this system as the storm slowly makes landfall over the Labor Day weekend somewhere along the central Louisiana coast and then very slowly chugs through the state on a northeasterly track. By the middle of next week, the storm is only expected to have made it as far as the Mississippi/Alabama border after which it will dissipate into a low pressure system, losing its tropical characteristics. Current projections are for 10-20” of rain along parts of the Gulf Coast, including New Orleans, LA; Biloxi, MS; Mobile, AL; and Pensacola, FL. Given the slow-moving nature of this storm, widespread flooding will be expected as the storm will continuously dump large amounts of rain over the same areas. On the bright side, the heavy rain will help to eradicate the drought in parts of the Gulf Coast, unfortunately, the parched state of Texas will see very little rain from this storm. Wet vacuums, plastic sheeting, tarps, and clean-up supplies will experience a jump in demand along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida.

While this weekend will be spent focusing on TD #13 close to home, another threat far out in the Atlantic will bear watching over the next week. Hurricane Katia, currently several hundreds of miles east of the Leeward Islands, will eye-up the East Coast of the U.S. as she churns west-northwestward across the Atlantic over the next several days. She is still about 6 to 10 days from any real threat to the U.S. and there are many factors that could alter her track, so the forecast path has a lot of time to change over the coming days. The most current forecasting models take Katia unsettlingly close to the Carolina coastline as she makes a turn to the northeast along the Eastern Seaboard. We will continue to monitor her progress and will issue updates as needed.