Posted by Bill Kirk, CEO

No weather excuses this year with a near record warm Memorial Day weekend.  For the nation as a whole, the 5 days around Memorial Day (21st - 25th) were the 2nd warmest in 17+ years, recall that Memorial Day last year was the #1 coldest in 17+ years.  The year-over-year change going from worst last year to 2nd best this year certainly was a plus for overall retail and seasonal sales despite the economic conditions.  Record hot temperatures started early in the week with 107F in Phoenix and 103F in Las Vegas.  As the heat expanded East it took an unusual northern track with mid-week temperatures soaring to 97F in Minneapolis and 92F late in the week for Boston.  With middle 80s and very humid conditions in the Northeast over the weekend demand was high for must have hot weather categories like fans, lawn maintenance categories, summer apparel, sunscreen and food categories. 

The wettest conditions in 17+ years helped to keep the Southeast on the cool side putting a damper on seasonal category demand unless it was personal bug repellents which are having a fantastic season.

May 2009 is on track to be the first month since October 2007 for all 4-weeks in the month to trend both warmer than the prior year and above average so there is some upside surprise here for retail sales.  Last year retail industry same-store sales were below average at +2.9% so the relatively easy comparison should help gains this year come in higher than expected for discounters, clubs, home centers and grocery stores.

Posted by Rich Woolley VP Operations and Michael Ferrari, PhD

WTI’s proprietary hurricane season forecast technology indicates that the total number of named storms in 2009 will once again be fewer than last year.  The model indicates at the most 13 named storms, but uncertainty due to the upcoming Fall ENSO status necessitates a forecast range.  The official forecast is for 10-13 named storms with 6 of them becoming hurricanes and 3 of them becoming major hurricanes.  The total number of named storms will be influenced by a number of factors this year which are all pointing toward a less active season.  The AMO, TSA, TNA and ENSO signals were the primary tools used in this year’s forecast.  CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW

The AMO or Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation which is basically an index depicting North Atlantic sea surface temperatures has for the first time since 1994 trended negative for the first 4 months of the year.  This is significant as a negative AMO index value is strongly correlated to lower than average tropical activity.

The TNA and TSA are indexes of sea surface temperatures in the Tropical North Atlantic and Tropical South Atlantic.  The TNA has begun to trend negatively over the last few months while the TSA has trended more positive.  Both of these factors also correlate to lower tropical activity.

The final factor used to build this year’s forecast was the status of El Nino.  Currently last winter’s weak La Nina has faded and there are some indications that a weak El Nino may form later this year as tropical waters off South America have shown some unusual warming in the last few weeks.  The uncertain status of El Nino later this year has introduced some doubt into this year’s forecast as a rapid development of El Nino this Fall will dramatically reduce the number of named tropical systems due to upper atmospheric wind shear.  

Analog years where the 4 major forecast indexes were in a similar alignment were in 1973, 1984 and 1986.  Remarkably in those 3 years there were no major Hurricane strikes in the U.S. as most storms remained in the open Atlantic and the few that were in the Gulf of Mexico tended to be weaker systems.  There were 6-13 named storms in the analog years.   

Readers need to be cautioned that while the number of storms may be less this year it only takes one storm striking a heavily populated area to cause catastrophic loss of life and property. 

Accumulated Cyclone Energy

Though the number of named storms is the most popular Hurricane Season metric to track there is another metric that better represents the actual amount of hurricane activity.  This is known as ACE or Accumulated Cyclone Energy.  The last few years have seen a dramatic increase in the number of marginal storms being named that haven’t survived more than a day or two which has to some extent inflated the actual number of systems.  Officially the naming of many of these systems is justified but the advent of satellite imagery and constant 24/7 monitoring of the tropics has resulted in a greater detection frequency.   This increase in detection had resulted in many short-lived named storms, thus increasing the number of named storms metric.  The ACE tempers the effect of numerous marginal storms when determining overall hurricane activity.  The graphic below depicts the last 39 years of ACE which was at its 3^rd lowest level in 39 years and lowest in 31 years.  This clearly shows that hurricanes have not been increasing despite a global warming trend from the mid 1970s to 2006.  It’s interesting to note that as the Oceans have cooled over the past two years, activity has dramatically decreased on a global scale. Looking ahead to this year one can expect a slight rebound in this index as the potential for a developing El Nino will lead to a greater number of storms in the Pacific and a larger probability that storms in the Atlantic basin last longer than expected due in part to them remaining out at sea.  CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW

A Review of Last Year: 

There were 16 named storms in 2008 which was one less than the year before and 2 greater than last years WTI forecast of 14.  Of the 16 storms, 8 of them strengthened into hurricanes and 5 became major hurricanes (WTIs forecast was for 7 Hurricanes with 4 storms reaching major hurricane status).  Overall the number of named storms was still above normal as were the number of strong hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher).  The season began in late May with Tropical Storm Arthur and ended in early November with Hurricane Paloma.  Notable storms in 2008 were Gustav, Hanna, and Ike.  Gustav was a major hurricane before interaction with the Island of Cuba weakened the storm before eventual landfall in Louisiana.  Hanna was a short-lived hurricane but a long lived tropical storm which almost single handedly refilled a drought drained Lake Okeechobee in Florida.  Some areas in Florida saw over 2 feet of rain from Hanna.   The most damaging storm of the year was Hurricane Ike which brought near total devastation to parts of Galveston, TX.  Property damage was severe and a number of lives were lost.

The big plus this Easter - NO SNOW for the 3-days leading up to the holiday!  A look back at the past few Easters shows SNOW was indeed a four letter word last year and in 2007.  The chart below shows the regional weather conditions for the Thursday-Saturday time frame leading up to Easter.

2006 (April 13-15) The best Easter weather on record and retail sales soared.  In 2006 there were 1,543 record high temperatures set across the country with NO SNOW resulting in the best weather conditions possible.  Temperatures were near 90F in the South and Upper 70s well into the North.  Consumer confidence was high at 87 which combined to make it a stellar month for retailers with same-store sales gains of +6.7% according to industry data from ICSC.  It’s interesting to note that over the past 25 years, a warm/dry/no snow Easter month with high confidence (like 2006) results in SSS gains of +6.3% well above average.   But a cold/wet/snowy Easter month with low consumer confidence yields well below average SSS gains of just +0.5%.

2007 (April 5-7) An Easter most retailers and suppliers would like to forget.  A wholesale change with 755 record low temperatures set and 230 snowfall records with the worst 3-days leading up to Easter in decades.  High temperatures were some 25 degrees colder than the year prior with 160″ of snow across the country.  While consumer confidence was just as high as 2006 at 87, the big change was the weather which sent retail industry same-store sales plummeting to historic lows at -1.9%.

2008 (March 20-22) The earliest Easter in 94 years and while temperatures leading up to the holiday were on average 7F warmer, it was just as snowy with 159″ of snowfall across the country and 162 snowfall records.  The Northeast and especially the North Central U.S. were particularly hard hit with heavy snowfall.  To make matters worse, consumer confidence dipped to 70 which again made for the 2nd straight abysmal Easter with retail industry same-store sales again in negative territory at -0.5% (2nd worst in decades).

2009 (April 9-11) An even warmer year with another 4F increase in national temperatures for the 3-days leading up to Easter but the big change was MUCH LESS SNOW!  Snowfall across the country only tallied up to 12″, down almost 93% from last year.  Every region except the Southwest showed warmer weather trends (warmest in 3 years) but the big negative this year isn’t the weather.  Consumer confidence has plunged to historic lows and will likely trend under 30 for the worst April confidence ever.  So, while weather was a plus, the economy will likely keep industry gains once again in negative territory.

Despite the economy going into a tail spin, retail industry same-store sales were on the high side of expectations (-0.1% vs expectations of -1% to -2%) and in many cases exceeded expectations, especially Wal-Mart which blew away it’s own expectations with a +5.1% gain.

There was some discussion that lower gasoline prices helped the industry but an analysis reveals that’s most likely not the reason for the stronger gains. As the chart below shows, gasoline prices have steadily risen by $0.27 gallon from December to February so that certainly didn’t help boost disposable income.  Unemployment went from 7.2% to 8.1% so that didn’t help retailers any.  So what was difference from the earlier Winter months when retail sales were the worst in decades to the better February?  MUCH BETTER WEATHER!

In December we had a slew of negatives for retailers with the coldest conditions in 8 years, 2nd wettest in 16+ years and snowiest in 20+ years with the snowiest week prior to Christmas in over 100 years resulting in the worst retail sales ever despite easy comparisons to a year ago.  Yet unemployment was lower than February and gas prices much lower than February so it was all about the weather creating the PERFECT STORM for the abysmal industry results.

Then came January which had a few more positives but cold and snow was still extreme and despite worse unemployment, higher gas prices retail sales were not as bad December and higher than expected.

Then there’s February - much worse unemployment, worst stock market plunge since the Depression, $0.27 gallon higher gas prices than December and very tough comparisons to a year ago retail sales, yet the industry comes in much higher than expected?  Why?  Maybe consumers felt a bit of Spring in the air with 1,581 new record high temperatures, warmest February in 4 years, least snow in 7 years and driest in 13 years?  All very favorable trends for higher store traffic and higher retail sales.  Ignore the weather - get surprised!  (WTI’s year-ahead February forecast - warmest in 4 years least snow in 4 years and stronger than expected retail sales).

(Click on chart for larger view)

The forecast issued in November by the U.K. and U.S. governments indicated a WARM WINTER!  Hmm?  This photo was captured outside the House of Commons this week as angry frozen Britons demanded some answers to the coldest Winter in 23 years, most snow in 18.

With the U.K on track to have the coldest Winter since 1986 (23 years ago) and the 19th coldest of the past 96 years it is not surprising that 75% of Britons now question global warming and fear the green agenda has been hijacked as means to increase their taxes.   While weather is not climate - climate change is also not unusual as the climate has and always will change with or without humans.

It is interesting that since the Pacific Ocean entered it’s 32-year cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Cycle and the Sun went into hibernation with the longest solar minimum in over 100 years in 2006 there has been significantly more cold, wet and snow in many areas across the Northern Hemisphere.  Makes sense - cold Pacific - cold planet!  Recall that the Summer of 2007 in the U.K. was the coldest in 14 years and wettest in 94 with record flooding; September 2008 coldest in 14 years in the U.K.; October 2008 earliest London snowfall in 70 years and the heaviest snowfall in London in 18 years here in February.  Since the PDO shifted, 71% of weeks have been colder than years prior in the U.K.  Climate scientists will again argue this is weather not climate, true, but we can also argue that the very climate models that predicted this warm Winter were dead wrong.  If our government scientists with the most expensive and sophisticated climate models on the planet can’t get the next few months right, why should we believe the models getting the next decade right or the next 100 years right?

These climate models do not understand PDO, they do not understand the influences of the Sun and until they do there will be more surprises and 1000s more scientific skeptics!  The latest skeptic is Dr John Theon former Chief of NASA weather and climate research from 1982-1994, yes James Hansen worked under John. Dr Theon joins the thousands of scientists questioning anthropogenic climate change, “My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit.  Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results.  In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it.  They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists.  This is clearly contrary to how science should be done.  Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy.” Read Dr Theon’s full position in the U.S. Senate Minority Report Update.

Here in the U.S…coldest Winter in 8 years, snowiest in 13 years.  2008 Coldest in 11 years.  Last several years there have been record late freezes in the Southeast, Florida, California.  Empirical evidence has long been lost in the age of climate computer modeling - our climate is telling us the real deal and it’s time for the Gore’s and Hansen’s of the world to look out the window as the models aren’t doing very well on month 1 let alone month 1,200!

On an extremely frigid and snowy night, Weather Trends International sponsored the 13th Annual Elvis Birthday Bash at the State Theatre Centre for the Arts January 17th, 2009.  The two “Kings” Scot Bruce and Mike Albert put on a FANTASTIC SHOW for the sold out crowd.

Weather Trends International group photo with not one but two Elvis!

Bill and Roberta Kirk with the Kings.

Bill Kirk & Jack Grum freezing outside the State Theatre.

Over 2,300 years ago Sun Tzu said it best “Know the weather and know the field and your victory will be complete.”  While many retailers new the “field”, the bad economy this holiday/Winter season, the weather was the big unknown!  As late as November the predictions from organizations like the National Retail Federation were that retail same-store sales were going to be +2%, +2.2%, +2.5% but what actually happened was -2.7% in November, -1.9% in December and very likely -2.5% or worse in January 2009.  But it shouldn’t have been a surprise as simple analysis on the right metrics very clearly warned of the impending “perfect storm”.

In December the two statistically most significant factors for retail industry same-store sales (SSS) are cold/snow (77% significance) and the consumer confidence index (75% significance).  With consumer confidence at an historic low (38 in December) simple regression of retail sales (green dots) predicted retail sales would follow suit - worst ever.  The index was almost half of the previous record low which predicted something that had never happened before - negative December SSS.

(Click on image for larger view)

But the more important factor was actually the cold and snow which once again history would have told us how bad it could get.  While December overall was the coldest in 8 years (2nd coldest in 20) for the U.S. it was also the snowiest in 20 years with the week before Christmas very likely the snowiest in 114 years.  The chart below shows just how much snow fell during this one critical week.  The last time it was this cold and snowy prior to Christmas was 2000 which resulted in the worst retail sales ever - this year snowfall was even more.  Combined with the worst consumer confidence ever - it wasn’t surprising that retail sales would trend well below +0.7%; well below the rosy predictions of +2.0%!

(Click on image for larger view)

Know the weather and victory will be yours!

January’s weather - FRIGID and more snow.  The U.S. will have the coldest January in 5 years, snowiest in 4 years and we already know consumer confidence will be well below the previous record low of 66 (currently 38).  Any predictions for January?  The answer should be obvious!  With analysis of the past 24 years showing a 90% correlation between retail SSS and consumer confidence and 78% to cold/snow being very bad for sales (warm/dry is actually best in January for stronger retail sales), it shouldn’t be a surprise when retail industry same-store sales come in at -2.7% or lower - potentially the worst in history for any month!

While the media got excited about strong Black Friday sales, November retail industry overall same-store sales gains will likely be in negative territory - the worst in decades except for Wal-Mart (industry results are announced Thursday). Why so bad? We’ll despite gas prices showing a record plunge down 40% vs a year ago and down 56% from July highs consumers are clearly only buying the must have need items. Weather drives need items. While November was the coldest in 6 years and 3rd driest in 16+ for the U.S. (favorable for store traffic and sales) many seasonal sales occurred in August - October when the weather was the coldest in 11 years for parts of the Eastern U.S. Last year, this period was record hot (hottest in 114 years) and then when it did get cool in November there was a huge surge in both holiday sales but also seasonal sales thus the strong industry gains of +3.5% (2nd best gains in all of 2007). So, now we’re up against a really tough sales comparisons with arguably the worst economy in 80 years. So, expect sales in negative territory and a bad reaction on Wall Street.  Below is a regional summary of how November fared in the U.S.

For the rest of the world there was some “out-of-sync” weather that likely curtailed seasonal category sales and dampened retail results.  Russia for example had the warmest November in 16+ years, great if you’re selling beer or food categories but not great for apparel or cold seasonal items. Canada also had the warmest conditions in 7 years putting a damper on seasonal sales as well.  In the Southern Hemisphere, Argentina had the warmest November (their late Spring) in 16+ years which is a big plus for Spring sales so the retailers there will fare better there.  On the cold side, India was the coolest in 3 years, China the coolest in 5 years, Mexico and the U.S. coolest in 6 years and Brazil the 3rd coolest in 16+ years.  See map below which depicts November 2008 temperatures vs 2007.

Year-to-date the planet is still trending the coldest since 1997.  Why?  The 32-year cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cycle (cold phase of Pacific Ocean water temperatures) has started and is now the coolest in 50+ years.  The sun continues it’s longest solar minimum cycle in over 100 years which further helps to cool the planet.  Ice coverage across the globe is up 1.2 million square kilometers over last year at the North Pole and the South Pole coverage continues to be well above average with 400,000 square kilometers more ice than the long term average despite entering their normal Summer melt season.  All of these factors have kept the planet relatively cool, only +0.3C above average, well below the peak global anomaly observed in 1998 (+0.6C).  The image below from NASA shows polar ice coverage at the North Pole is approaching the biggest in 5 years and not much different than observed 29 years ago!  So much for the CNN headline a few months ago that the North Pole would melt this year - IT DIDN’T!

COLDEST EARTH IN 12 YEARS!  Where’s Global Warming?

Don’t expect to hear this News in the mainstream media or “scientists” whose livelihood depends on a gloom and doom warming scenario.  But, the planet is not doing what the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned us about - in fact the opposite is happening.  Remember the story early this Summer about the British Kayaker who was going to witness the complete melting of the North Pole?  The story made CNN Headline news but guess what - no retraction, no update when the North Pole didn’t melt.  In fact, Ice coverage at the North Pole is now +31.3% more than last year and NASA’s satellite imagery shows it’s not much different than 29 years ago when NASA first started taking pictures of the North Pole (see Ice coverage from Oct 1979 vs Last Year’s minimum and Oct 2008 great expansion). Also recall that last year was the real start of a pattern shift with the Northern Hemisphere having the most snowfall in over 30 years (bet you didn’t hear that in the news).

If we had pictures from 1000 years ago during the medieval warm period it may very well have looked like 2007, maybe even worse. Now didn’t Al Gore use Hurricane Katrina in 2005 as an example of more and stronger hurricanes are going to be the norm in his documentary Inconvenient Truth?  Well, here’s an inconvenient fact according to Florida State University which tracks Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Tropical Cyclone Days which is now at the lowest levels (340) since you guessed it 1977 (31 years ago).  The ACE index has steadily declined since the peak in 1992 when the index was at 880.  2004 was 2nd most active hurricane year at 782. So, the data clearly doesn’t suggest more hurricanes, in fact much less on a global scale.  A bit amusing how Al Gore used a cherry picker in his movie as clearly he cherry picks the data to make his case as does the media who thrives on gloom and doom and rarely gives all the facts.  Below is what the science and data is really telling us or visit the FSU site www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/ for more information.

So the North Pole ice is expanding faster than we’ve seen in decades, the Southern Hemisphere ice coverage is as big as it’s been in decades (very normal), the planet is the coolest in 12 years and there has been no warming trend since 1998 when the global temperature peaked at +0.6C above average according to the UK Met Hadley Center, So far in 2008 we’re trending +0.3C above average with some months actually trending below average as was the case in January 2008. Recall that some scientists and radio shows went too far to say that global warming was over in January this year as the Earth was technically “normal”.  One month is weather but a decade IS CLIMATE!  Over this 12 year period (clearly not short term weather but climate) CO2 has steadily gone up +14.7% since 1979 and up +5.3% in the past 10 years.  CO2 is up, but the planet is cooler? Brings into question whether mad-made CO2 is as important a factor as IPCC and alarmists are making it out to be.  A pollutant if made by man but natural if made by a dead tree but either way not likely to be the end of mankind or the world as we know it (CO2 is 5th most important gas in our atmosphere representing less than 0.038% of the total atmosphere).  We may welcome a little CO2 after this Fall-Winter!

While weather is not long term climate there have been signs of big changes globally the past few years.  Recall that China last year had the coldest/snowiest winter in 800 years; record late freezes in California and the Southeast US the past couple years; Brazil coldest/snowiest late Winter (Sep 2008) in 100+ years, Last year Argentina had the coldest Winter in 100 years.  Record 100+ year snowfall in the Midwest/New England last year.  Remember Lake Okeechobee in Florida was the poster child of climate change as the lake was nearly 5 feet below normal - today it’s 100% back to normal in just one year.

So, what’s causing the big changes?  Most likely two things that the IPCC discounts because they are not fully understood 1) The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cycle - PDO and 2) The Phases of the Sun. The PDO is simply a long-term Pacific Ocean temperature cycle of about 32 years that goes from warm Ocean phases (as has been the case for the past 32 years from the middle 1970s to 2007) and then into cold phases which started last year and has strengthened to the coldest levels in 50 years.  IPCC will argue that it was a coincident that the last time the PDO was negative (cold phase from the early 1940s to the middle 1970s) that the globe had really cold and snowy years with a general global cooling trend or lack of any sustained warming trend despite CO2 going up over 8% from the 40s to the 70s.  The graphic below shows departure from average Ocean temperatures with a colder than average Pacific Ocean especially in the Eastern Pacific, around Antarctica, across the Mediterranean and even around the Northwest Atlantic.  This is one cause of the cooler trends here on Earth.  Bottom line fact, warm Oceans = warm Planet; cold Oceans = cold Planet.

The second is the sun.  The sun goes through a regular 11-year solar cycles of weak inactive periods (no sun spots) and very active periods (a lot of hot sun spots).  The current cycle 23 minimum has been unusually long, longest in over 100 years with no sunspots. The minimum phase of the sun brings less solar radiation to Earth keeping the planet cooler, especially when the Oceans are also cooler.

So retailers like Diesel that run alarmist ads with NYC under water and sunbathers on the rooftops in Winter better keep a few coats on the shelves this Winter and maybe for a lot of Winters to come! Smart companies like Wal-Mart, SCJohnson and many others are focusing on reducing packaging so we don’t fill up our landfills, using methane gas from landfills to reduce our dependence on foreign oil to run factories, putting in sky lights in retail stores to reduce energy bills or motion sensors in lighted grocery displays that only come on when a customer is in the area.  Being good stewards of the planet - very important - believing everything you hear from the media - run for the hills! Anyone who says “the debate is over” or “global warming scientists are in 100% consensus agreement” is not coming from a true scientist as Science is not about consensus it’s about studying the facts toward a systematic knowledge of the truth as everything else is just a hypothesis.  Giving only part of the story is a political agenda not science.  Climate change is a hypothesis and the debate and study should continue as the media and the “consensus scientists” do NOT have all the FINAL answers - we learn new things everyday - maybe they will too! Climate is always changing as it has for a billion years and will continue to do so with humans or without humans for the next billion years.

August Retail Same-Store Sales came in lower than Wall Street expected at 1.7% making this the 3rd weakest gains in 23+ years according to data from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC).  Of course the obvious answer cited was the economy and lower consumer confidence (57) which was the 2nd lowest level in 23+ years.

But a quick statistical analysis reveals there is a bigger factor here and that’s the weather!  The chart below shows retail industry same-store sales (BARS) over the past 8 years which includes the high consumer confidence year of 2004 and the weak consumer confidence years in the 2002-2003 time-frame and the current weak period in 2008.  The line shows the national temperature (blue line is a cold August, red line a warm August).  Precipitation is noted in the boxes as very dry, dry, wet or very wet.  The consumer confidence index is posted below the year.  Interesting to note that the correlation to temperatures is 80% (warmer is better for stronger sales), to precipitation 72% (drier is better for stronger sales) yet only 24% correlation to consumer confidence (leading economic index)!

(CLICK ON CHART FOR A LARGER IMAGE )

The ideal weather would be a warm/dry August as that is great for retail clearance sales and benefits the stand alone and home center outlets.  It’s interesting to note that the highest consumer confidence index was 96 in 2004 but once again the weather trumped the economy with a cold/wet month and retail sales were the worst in 23+ years.  The really hot/dry years in 2003, 2005, 2006 had much stronger retail same-store sales, all above average gain years.  The really hot August last year only had half a good thing as the wetter weather (16% wetter nationally than the year prior due to heavy rain in the West and North - drought did occur in the Southeast).  With August 2008 coming in as the 2nd coldest August in 11 years and wettest in over 16+ years, it’s not surprising why sales were so weak.

Note:  the sales and weather data used in this analysis is based on the National Retail Federation 4-week August (in 2008 that was from 8/3 thru 8/30).

Other interesting tid bits that statistics can tell us include the impacts of land falling hurricanes.  The more active years with more land falling storms cost the retail industry 1.1% in lower gains due to the disruptive nature of evacuations and damage to stores.

The Power of 1F change on a national monthly scale is significant as 1F warmer yields a +0.6% gain for the industry per degree.  But, as was the case in 2008, the flip side is also true with an average reduction in sales gains of -0.5% per 1F change in August National temperatures.

All the patterns flip in September where cold/wet/snowy yields much stronger sales gains than a hot/dry September like we had last year.  So, look for upside surprises this month with retailers doing better than expected!