April retail same-store sales are expected to be in negative territory when results are announced on Thursday; this has only happened twice in 22+ years! The legitimate culprit is the weather as it was the coldest April in 10 years, wettest in four, snowiest in over 14 years and the worst Easter weather in 12 years. Near record high gasoline prices only added fuel to the fire making this an April most retailers will want to forget and a very disappointing end to Q1 2007.
“While the April retail news will be very grim, it will also weigh down quarterly earnings which will likely create some anxiety on Wall Street over the next few weeks”
- Bill Kirk, CEO Weather Trends International
The worst April gains on record were +0.3% back in 1988 and the worst gains for any month were in March 1995 at -0.8% and expectations are for a -1% industry year-over-year loss – worst ever.
Regionally, the Northeast and the Central U.S. had the most extreme weather with snowfall trending up 788% over last year in the Northeast and up 917% in the North Central U.S. The Southwest was the only region to trend drier than a year ago – a slight positive for store traffic and retail sales.