June retail industry same-store sales gains were 2.4% which was the 2rd worst gains in 22 years, continuing the three straight months of very weak retail sales. “The weather was certainly volatile and played a role as there were at least 108 record low temperatures leading up to the 4th of July holiday which put a chill on Summer seasonal category sales during a critical holiday period for retailers.  Record low temperatures dipping to the middle 30s in the Great Lakes, middle 40s in the interior Northeast and low 50s as far South as Texas and California during the July 1st – 3rd period certainly had a negative influence on consumer’s interest in seasonal category sales.

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Regionally, the Northeast had a cooler than average June due in large part to a few very cold periods, but in an unusual twist the Northeast also had the greatest number of hot days over 90°F, up 68% over last year June.  The South Central U.S. had a very cool month with hot days over 90°F down 47% and really hot days over 100°F down a very significant 73%.  All negative factor for retail sales in the region.  Nationally, the number of hot days over 90°F was down 75 in June, but year-to-date hot days are down 27% nationally vs last year and really hot days over 100°F are down 32% year-to-date which in part explains the extreme weakness in retail sales during the April – June period.  Record flooding in parts of the South Central U.S. and Florida further dampened store traffic with 14.89″ of rain in Dallas and 17.62″ in Miami for the 5-week retail June (June 3rd – July 7th).

This June 2007 was the coolest June in 3 years while retailers and manufacturers of seasonal beverages are being effected by the year-over-year changes in hot days versus 2006.  Eventhough June did see an increase of favorable selling days in the Northern Rocky Mountain, North Central and the Northeast regions of the United States, the YTD trend is down 27% for days greater than 90 degrees, and 32% for days greater than 100 degrees Farenheit.  Drought is most intense in the deep South and Southwest driving increased demand for soft drinks and other beverages.

Beverage manufacturers are being advised to focus on specific weeks over the next 120 days where weather trends will favor the promotion and sales of warm-weather product and avoid the less favorable periods.