It was the 2nd warmest August on record for the U.S. in 113 years due in large part to the excessive heat in the Southeast.  The Northeast, parts of Texas and the Pacific Northwest had the coolest conditions during August.  Coming on the heels of the coolest July in three years when 89% of the U.S. trended colder than a year ago, the heat was a plus for clearing out excess Summer inventories.

The week-prior to Labor Day was warmest in 15 years and the driest in eight, (recall last year was the wettest in 15) which was great for store traffic at stand alone and open air centers but can be a bigger negative for Mall based traffic as consumers enjoy the favorable outdoor weather.

The hurricane season while active for the Caribbean has been another non-event to date for the U.S. with only 6 named tropical systems so far this year for the slowest pace since 2001.  While rainfall was down 19% nationally, parts of the Northeast and Central U.S. had excessive rainfall amounts which can be catalysts for putting consumers in the back-to-work mindset spurring Fall purchases.  With 40s and 50s for low temperatures over the Labor Day weekend in the Northeast, last minute shopping for back-to-school should have been brisk.

August retail sales came in at 2.9%, higher than analysts expected, however the April-August period brought the weakest retail sales gains in over 22 years.   Weather Trends International studies show that a warmer August can bring a +0.6% bounce over a colder August suggesting the higher end of the projections are possible with Mall based and purely apparel outlets being harder hit.  Open-air centers, stand-alone and home centers benefit the most in a warm/dry month.