Finally, a month that’s in sync weather-wise for stronger retail sales. Unlike last year when November ranked as the 14th warmest in 112 years with the least amount of snow in five years (61% below normal snowfall), this November now appears as though it will be the coldest in five years and snowiest in seven! Short range computer models have been in strong agreement that air right out of the Arctic region will dive into the U.S. the week of Thanksgiving all the way to Texas! There is moderately strong potential for a Thanksgiving Day snow storm to impact the Central U.S. from Kansas to Minnesota and eventually the Eastern Great Lakes with some areas getting 6-12”+ of snow! It would not be surprising to see some 18”+ amounts in the Upper Midwest. The system appears to move out in time for Black Friday/weekend sales while the Southeast and East Coast remains a bit damp on Friday and then will have a cooler and drier weekend. This will drive exceptional sales gains for all of the 100s of cold weather categories (Winter apparel and accessories, boots, heaters, electric blankets, firelogs, dog houses, birdfeed, rodent control, hot beverages, hot cereals, soup, lipcare and other cold weather items). With temperatures trending 20+ degrees colder than last year and freezes deep into Texas, triple digit sales gains are very likely for these volatile categories.
SNOW categories will have a big uptick in sales throughout the Rocky Mountains and Central U.S. and eventually the Great Lakes. Items like ice melt, washer fluid, shovels, snow blowers, tire chains and batteries will all benefit from this snow event in the Central States. This storm will likely result in the snowiest November since 2000 – a good year to evaluate to estimate demand for this November. Weather Trends International’s year-ahead forecast for November indicated it would be the snowiest November since 2000 and above average and that appears as though it will happen.
SEVERE WEATHER out ahead of this front is likely with damaging winds (>50mph) and tornadoes are very likely for the Texas to Ohio Valley region. Storm related merchandise will do well over the Black Friday weekend in the Deep South and Southern Ohio Valley. Items like chain saws, tarps, generators, leaf blowers, batteries and other storm related merchandise may all see an up tick in sales.
Beyond this first major blast of Winter is another shot of very cold air that appears to head into the Northeast the week after Thanksgiving with very cold conditions and snow! This sets the stage for the lakes in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast to freeze up to 45 days earlier than last year driving strong demand for ice fishing equipment and other Winter seasonal items. This shot of cold air will be strong enough to cause auto battery failures throughout the Great Lakes and Northeast the week of NOV 25 – DEC 1.
These really cold periods result in higher TV viewership and are great times for reaching more consumers with your product or institutional advertisements.
We expect this weather will drive strong consumer demand for seasonal items that remained stagnant on the shelves during the exceptionally warm October weather bringing better than expected sales. Wall Street analysts are only expecting a +2% to +2.5% retail industry same-store sales gain in November but we think the strong surge in seasonal category sales could very well result in better than expected sales gains near +3%. The industry hasn’t seen +3% since March so this will be welcome news going into the critical holiday shopping season.
DECEMBER WARNING: We expect a cold and very snowy December and that can negatively impact gift category sales, but again, it can be a strong catalyst for exceptional sales gains for the must have Winter seasonal items.