It was the coldest November nationally in five years and the driest in six (79% of cities trended drier this November vs last year and 61% trended colder).  The cooler trends were due in large part to the downright cold conditions around the Thanksgiving Holiday when Black Friday trended the coldest and driest in over 16 years for the nation as a whole.

After the warmest August – October on record, the much colder trends in November brought a strong surge in demand for cold seasonal categories.  Even snow accessories and ice fishing equipment saw an up-tick in sales as 37% of the U.S. was blanketed in snow by the end of the month with lakes and ponds already freezing across the northern ¼ of the U.S. up to 7 weeks earlier than last year.  November was the first month since March to bring an in-sync weather pattern for stronger industry retail sales so while expectations are again in the low +2% to +2.5% range, there will certainly be some upside surprises due to stronger seasonal category sales.

BUSINESS TRENDS:  November will be the first month to be in-sync weather wise for retail and seasonal sales since March and therefore has a better chance of exceeding Wall Street’s expectations when retail same-store sales are announced on Thursday, the 6th.  Expectations are for +2% to +2.5% gains but with strong pent-up demand for cold seasonal categories and an exceptional Black Friday, overall industry sales will likely come in on the high end of expectations if not exceed them.  This will bring some hope for December and the holiday shopping season.  The negatives going into December will add up when consumers get their utility bills that will be the highest in seven years in the Northeast.