Year Ahead December Forecast Accuracy at 94.3%

From December 30th to January 5th, it was by far the coldest week of Winter so far with the nation trending 9.1 degrees colder than last year and 1.4 degrees below average for the coldest last week of the retail December in 4 years (80% of the country had below normal temperatures with freezes as far South as Central Florida).  It was also dry for most of the country (except California where flooding rains plagued parts of the state) benefiting store traffic and clearance sales.  Overall, the 5-week retail December ended up the 3rd coldest in 15 years and the snowiest in 7 years.  National snowfall trended up 315% over last year which explains the exceptional demand for snow accessories and many Winter seasonal items.  Unfortunately, the stormy pattern was a negative for overall store traffic but on-line sales and food delivery sales were strong.  The negatives weighing on consumers continue to be near record gasoline prices up 34% over last year and now heating bills that could be 40%+ higher than last year due to the colder weather.

20080107_bar_chartWeather Trends Intl year-ahead daily forecast accuracy of 260 core cities for the month of December was exceptional at 94.3% — predicting both the cold and snowy trends.

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