June 2008 Retail Sales +4.3% Blow Out!

Retail comp-store sales gains were twice Wall Street expectations!  Thank the weather and rebate checks.  Despite record high gasoline prices and economic worries, Retailers posted a very strong month.  With the South Central U.S. having the hottest June in 10 years (90F days up 57%) along with a scorching heat-wave in the Northeast (hot 90F days up 19% over LY) and the hottest Father’s Day weekend in 16+ years all boosted demand for Summer seasonal items like A/C, fans, sunscreen, bug sprays, beverages and consumable food categories.  Over the past 14 years, sales and weather have moved up and down together 80% of cases and never in 22+ years were there three straight Junes with comps below 3%.  So, the +2.5% expectation on Wall Street was ignoring both history and the weather.  Historically a warm June average gains are +4.9%, so the +4.3% gain was in line with what Mother Nature would have indicated.

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