Retail comp-store sales gains were twice Wall Street expectations! Thank the weather and rebate checks. Despite record high gasoline prices and economic worries, Retailers posted a very strong month. With the South Central U.S. having the hottest June in 10 years (90F days up 57%) along with a scorching heat-wave in the Northeast (hot 90F days up 19% over LY) and the hottest Father’s Day weekend in 16+ years all boosted demand for Summer seasonal items like A/C, fans, sunscreen, bug sprays, beverages and consumable food categories. Over the past 14 years, sales and weather have moved up and down together 80% of cases and never in 22+ years were there three straight Junes with comps below 3%. So, the +2.5% expectation on Wall Street was ignoring both history and the weather. Historically a warm June average gains are +4.9%, so the +4.3% gain was in line with what Mother Nature would have indicated.
