The big plus this Easter – NO SNOW for the 3-days leading up to the holiday!  A look back at the past few Easters shows SNOW was indeed a four letter word last year and in 2007.  The chart below shows the regional weather conditions for the Thursday-Saturday time frame leading up to Easter.

2006 (April 13-15) The best Easter weather on record and retail sales soared.  In 2006 there were 1,543 record high temperatures set across the country with NO SNOW resulting in the best weather conditions possible.  Temperatures were near 90F in the South and Upper 70s well into the North.  Consumer confidence was high at 87 which combined to make it a stellar month for retailers with same-store sales gains of +6.7% according to industry data from ICSC.  It’s interesting to note that over the past 25 years, a warm/dry/no snow Easter month with high confidence (like 2006) results in SSS gains of +6.3% well above average.   But a cold/wet/snowy Easter month with low consumer confidence yields well below average SSS gains of just +0.5%.

2007 (April 5-7) An Easter most retailers and suppliers would like to forget.  A wholesale change with 755 record low temperatures set and 230 snowfall records with the worst 3-days leading up to Easter in decades.  High temperatures were some 25 degrees colder than the year prior with 160″ of snow across the country.  While consumer confidence was just as high as 2006 at 87, the big change was the weather which sent retail industry same-store sales plummeting to historic lows at -1.9%.

2008 (March 20-22) The earliest Easter in 94 years and while temperatures leading up to the holiday were on average 7F warmer, it was just as snowy with 159″ of snowfall across the country and 162 snowfall records.  The Northeast and especially the North Central U.S. were particularly hard hit with heavy snowfall.  To make matters worse, consumer confidence dipped to 70 which again made for the 2nd straight abysmal Easter with retail industry same-store sales again in negative territory at -0.5% (2nd worst in decades).

2009 (April 9-11) An even warmer year with another 4F increase in national temperatures for the 3-days leading up to Easter but the big change was MUCH LESS SNOW!  Snowfall across the country only tallied up to 12″, down almost 93% from last year.  Every region except the Southwest showed warmer weather trends (warmest in 3 years) but the big negative this year isn’t the weather.  Consumer confidence has plunged to historic lows and will likely trend under 30 for the worst April confidence ever.  So, while weather was a plus, the economy will likely keep industry gains once again in negative territory.