Posted by Bill Kirk, CEO
No weather excuses this year with a near record warm Memorial Day weekend. For the nation as a whole, the 5 days around Memorial Day (21st – 25th) were the 2nd warmest in 17+ years, recall that Memorial Day last year was the #1 coldest in 17+ years. The year-over-year change going from worst last year to 2nd best this year certainly was a plus for overall retail and seasonal sales despite the economic conditions. Record hot temperatures started early in the week with 107F in Phoenix and 103F in Las Vegas. As the heat expanded East it took an unusual northern track with mid-week temperatures soaring to 97F in Minneapolis and 92F late in the week for Boston. With middle 80s and very humid conditions in the Northeast over the weekend demand was high for must have hot weather categories like fans, lawn maintenance categories, summer apparel, sunscreen and food categories.
The wettest conditions in 17+ years helped to keep the Southeast on the cool side putting a damper on seasonal category demand unless it was personal bug repellents which are having a fantastic season.
May 2009 is on track to be the first month since October 2007 for all 4-weeks in the month to trend both warmer than the prior year and above average so there is some upside surprise here for retail sales. Last year retail industry same-store sales were below average at +2.9% so the relatively easy comparison should help gains this year come in higher than expected for discounters, clubs, home centers and grocery stores.