Archive for November, 2009

Al Gore’s new book – “Our Choice” – Make it up!

Friday, November 20th, 2009

Posted by Bill Kirk, CEO

Here we go again – only inconvenient truth are the FACTS don’t support Mr Gore’s global warming hysteria.  When the climate data doesn’t support your position or alarmist rhetoric – MAKE IT UP!  That’s exactly what we see in Al Gore’s new book “Our Choice” released this month.  We can start with the front of the book.  The images below show the real global satellite image used (left image) and the one that finally made it onto the cover of the book with a little creative editing (right image).  Thank goodness for Paint Shop Pro or the cover of the book would have been a lot less scary.  The image on the left is the real satellite photo which shows permanent Arctic Sea Ice is still here (biggest in several years), no scary hurricanes as global tropical activity is at the 2nd lowest levels in 50 years according to the experts at Florida State University – Ryan Maue (http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/).  The image on the right is what made it into the book.  The sad thing is the basic meteorology is wrong here with a hurricane spinning clockwise off Florida, a hurricane over the equator – not possible and magically the Arctic ice is gone. (CLICK IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)

AL GORE BOOK PHOTO

The current global temperatures is +0.28C above the 30-year average but that’s down from the peak of +0.8C in 1998 (hottest year in recent decades) and even a little cooler than 21 years agon when temperatures were +0.2C to +0.4C above average in 1988. 

Speaking of 1988 wasn’t that the year of the “sweaty” congressional testimony from James Hansen who made dire predictions.  Recall that in 1988 the predictions for 20 years from then (that would be now) were

1) Global temperatures would be 1.5C above average – hmm that didn’t happen. 

2) New York City’s West Side Highway just blocks from Mr Hansen’s apartment would be underwater – hmm that didn’t happen. 

3) Severe droughts would be plaguing the Northeast with signs reading “water by request only” – hmm that didn’t happen as we’ve had exceptionally wet years in the 2000’s and several years of 100 year flooding events. 

4) Hurricanes would become devastating and widespread across the world – Ryan Maue’s data shows a near 30 year low (2nd weakeast in 50 years and dramatic plunge since 2005) so that didn’t happen. 

As we enter this 32-year cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO – read up on it) Cycle (cooling of the Pacific Ocean = cooler planet, warm phase was 1975-2006 = warm planet, cold phase was 1943-1975 very cold period on Earth, etc.) that started in 2006 we’ll continue to experience cooler trends here on Earth and that will inevitably result in more creative editing of the data to support the alarmist’s cause to establish a global government funded by all of us with a cap & trade tax.  Some IPCC scientists just recently made a new prediction that global cooling may take over for 30 years until warming resumes in 2040 due to the little understood influence of PDO and the Sun! hmmm  Those two things weren’t that important in the IPCC documents getting nothing more than a foot note – now it’s suddenly a big deal! 

Just recently the University of East Anglia (UK) Climate Research Unit was hacked with over 60 megs of files and e-mails taken that paint a disturbing view of what’s going on with government funded climate research.  The e-mail below suggests that if the data doesn’t support your cause – make it up (more from the BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8370282.stm)

From: Phil Jones
To: ray bradley ,mann@xxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxx.xxx
Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
Cc: k.briffa@xxx.xx.xx,t.osborn@xxxx.xxx

 Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or
first thing tomorrow.
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline
. Mike’s series got the annual
land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999
for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with
data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Cheers
Phil

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) xxxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@xxxx.xxx
NR4 7TJ
UK

NET-NET,  Save the $15.78 and wait for the sequel! :-o

October Retail Sales – Expect a BIG UPSIDE SURPRISE!

Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

Posted by Bill Kirk, CEO

US RETAIL RECAP (OCTOBER 2009):  Retail same-store-sales are announced tomorrow – Thursday, November 5th and the results are likely to blow away Wall Street expectations!  There are many reasons but most of those are due to the coldest, wettest and snowiest October in years which very likely trumped concerns over the economy and unemployment.  We have already heard from some retailers that their overall sales are 5% to 10%+ higher than they originally expected due in large part to exceptional weather and while Wall Street expects sales to be flat we’re expecting industry gains of +1% to +2.5% or better.  WTI research on retail industry same-store sales show the statistically most relevant factors for stronger SSS gains in order of importance are more snow (definitely had that), colder temperatures (had that too), more rainfall (record breaking in some cases) and the least statistically significant is the consumer confidence index.  Here are the top 10 factors impacting retail sales and Fall seasonal merchandise and why the news will be good on Thursday:

  1. 2nd coldest October in 33 years for the nation as a whole and the coldest in 7 years.
  2. 1,908 record low temperatures during the month driving strong Fall and Winter sales.
  3. The month was -2F colder than last year and every 1F colder brings a +0.7% gain in retail same-store sales just due to colder temperatures driving seasonal sales!
  4. Top 5 wettest October in 114 years with +85% more rainfall than last year.
  5. Snowiest October in at least 20 years with +126% more snow nationally than last year’s snowy October.
  6. Coldest Columbus Day weekend in 9 years – fantastic for Fall seasonal category sales and promotional events.
  7. No hurricanes to disrupt store traffic.
  8. Gasoline prices relatively flat to last year, only 5% higher than a year ago levels.
  9. Consumer Confidence Index was only 48 but that’s actually up over last year’s worst ever index of 38.  While an important measure of how consumers feel about the economy, it has historically not been a good predictor of retail sales in October.  It is a very significant measure from December to March.
  10. Retailers are up against a very easy October last year when retail same-store sales were the worst ever at -4.2% according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

So in this case, the weather report really does belong on the financial page this Thursday!  The news for November may not be as good as seasonal sales were cannibalized into late September and October.  The regional summary chart below shows the weather trends across 8 U.S. regions with the Southeast having the least favorable conditions for cold seasonal merchandise.

REGIONAL RANKINGS OCT

U.S. October 2009 Summary Report

U.K. October 2009 Summary Report

G-20 UPDATE:  The G-20 country showing the greatest change toward much warmer weather was the U.K. with a +1.6C warmer month than last year with 28% less rainfall.  Mild and dry extends the garden season but a big negative for Autumn category sales.  Russia by far showed the coldest trends with -2.8C colder conditions than LY with 53% more precipitation.  The map below shows global October temperatures this October 2009 vs 2008.

global oct09 temp

G-20 October 2009 Summary Report