Posted by: Bill Kirk, CEO
April Retail Industry Same-Store-Sales (SSS) were announced yesterday and they came in at +0.8% according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) tally of major retailers. This was above expectations of -3% to 0% yet Wall Street took this as BAD NEWS in light of the strong gains the past few months (+9% in March, +3.7% in February, +3.0% in January, +3.6% in December).
More amazing was the good old weather excuse for lower sales! It’s 2010, and believe it or not ACCURATE weather trends can be forecast weeks, months and year-ahead. Hundreds of larger retailers and suppliers are already being PROACTIVE vs REACTIVE when it comes to using weather as a strategic planning tool vs the good old fall back EXCUSE for lower than expected sales! Below is WTI’s year-ahead forecast verification for the critical March-April timeframe (click on image for a larger view). Some retailers blamed the colder weather at the end of April for lower sales but little mention of the 2,481 record hot temperatures helping sales at the beginning of the month…HMMMMM…or the 100 record high temperatures late in the month in the East and the hottest April ever in New York City. For a detailed summary of how favorable weather was overall in April see WTI’s historical business-weather summary report (LINK HERE).
Here are some of my favorite weather quotes and profound predictions on things that would never happen but did. Today folks still believe what Mark Twain said moons ago “Everyone talks about the weather but no one does anything about it”…but soon, just like the predictions below that were ultimately proven to be wrong so too will the myth that businesses can’t do anything about Mother Nature!
“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” Western Union internal memo 1876
“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, President Royal Society, 1895
“Everything that can be invented has been invented.” Charles H. Duell Commissioner US Office of Patents, 1899
“I know half of my advertising was wasted…I just don’t know which half!” John Wannamaker, Wannamaker Department Stores 1905
“ One of the few certainties in retailing is that some of the merchandise bought enthusiastically in the wholesale market, where it looks eminently saleable, will, when it reaches the store, prove stubbornly unsalable. But despite the inevitability, buyers, like the rest of humanity, are reluctant to admit and address their errors. They find endless excuses for the slow sale of merchandise: the WEATHER’S still too hot; the WEATHER is still too cold; Easter’s late this year; Easter was early this year; It hasn’t been advertised; the ad was lousy; the ad ran on the wrong day or wrong newspaper.” E.A. Filene 1910
“Stocks have reached what looks like a permanent high plateau.” Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University 1929
“I thin there is a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM 1943
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” Ken Olson President & Founder Digital Equipment Corp. 1977
“ 640K ought to be enough for anybody.” Bill Gates 1981
“Weather and Climate-sensitive industries account for one-third of the U.S. GDP or 4 trillion dollars” Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr. U.S. Department of Commerce 2002
“Long range weather forecasting is dart board science” Paul Knight, Professor Penn State University (Quote from the ABC 20/20 show that documented WTI’s long-range capabilities) 2008
“Like weather forecasters, economic forecasters must deal with a system that is extraordinarily complex, that is subject to random shocks, and about which our data and understanding will always be imperfect. In some ways, predicting the economy is even more difficult than forecasting the weather, because an economy is not made up of molecules whose behavior is subject to the laws of physics, but rather of human beings who are themselves thinking about the future and whose behavior may be influenced by the forecasts that they or others make.” Ben Bernake, Federal Reserve Chairman 2009
“Warp speed ahead, Scotty we need more power, Captain, I’m giving her all she’s got” My TV counterpart Captain James T. Kirk.