It is a good thing that most meteorologists have two eyes in their head as we will need both of them to track two tropical weather disturbances.

Tropical Storm Katia, currently in the central Atlantic, will continue to move to the west-northwest over the next several days and is destined to strengthen into the next Major Hurricane of the season.  Expectations are that Katia will re-curve well east of the U.S. and possibly threaten Bermuda before weakening as she heads back out over the colder waters of the North Atlantic.  The track of Katia is expected to remain steady as a cold front moving through the eastern U.S. this weekend should help to block a westward shift in the storm, but that was also a possibility with Irene who ended up doing her own thing than what was forecast 5 days out.  So we need to keep one eye on Katia.

The second disturbance worth watching is currently near Cancun, Mexico.  All indications point to a slow strengthening of this system this weekend with a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm (Lee) forming by Sunday or Monday (9/4-5) somewhere off the Texas Gulf Coast.  There is fairly good agreement that this will happen, unfortunately after Monday there is no agreement on where the storm will go.  Our best estimate is that it will follow the middle track and move along the Texas Gulf Coast before making landfall somewhere near Houston onWednesday (9/7) or Thursday (9/8).  The primary threat from “Lee” would be flooding due to the slow moving nature of the storm.   At this point, the track of the storm does not look like it will bring large amounts of rain to central Texas but will instead drench only the coastal areas, so the drought in much of Texas will continue.

Impacts to retailers and consumers are expected to be minimal with increasing chances for rainfall in East Texas hampering store traffic.  As long as Katia remains well offshore its impact will also be minimal.

All eyes are nervously watching Hurricane Irene as she lashes the Bahamas with Category 3 strength (sustained winds 111-130 mph). Forecasts strengthen the storm over the next 12 to 24 hours and Irene could attain Category 4 strength (sustained winds 131-155 mph) as she chugs along a northward track. Residents and business owners along the North Carolina coast, including the Outer Banks where Irene may make landfall on Saturday, are bracing for the storm, shuttering windows and evacuating to higher ground. Current tracks take Irene along a generally north-northeasterly path, putting the Mid-Atlantic Coast at a real risk of severe impacts from this storm. After riding up the New Jersey coastline Sunday, possibly still as a Category 1 storm (sustained winds 74-95 mph), the storm is anticipated to move onshore near New York City and Connecticut Sunday evening and then rumble on northward, decreasing in strength.

Major cities along the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Boston, should take action now in anticipation of Irene. Recent heavy rainfall over much of the Northeast, including today’s soaking rain, have left grounds saturated and prone to flooding. Irene could dump upwards of 5 inches of rain anywhere from just west of the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Boston and to the coastal regions. This very heavy rainfall combined with soggy grounds will cause widespread flooding resulting in damage and travel disruptions. Tropical Storm-force winds will have a vast reach with Irene and could extend to just west of the I-95 corridor. Expect downed trees and power lines to cut power to thousands and cause travel hazards.  Along the immediate coastline, storm surge and heavy rain will cause coastal flooding, leaving many areas underwater and unreachable, and tropical storm-force to hurricane-force winds will cause damage. The storm will exit the Northeast on Monday, followed by much more settled weather.

Impacts: Retailers up and down the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine will experience elevated store traffic ahead of the storm as residents stock up on emergency supplies and food. Tarps, plastic sheeting, plywood, flashlights, batteries, first aid kits, and bottled water will be some of the big sellers, especially the closer the store is situated to the coast. The impacts from Irene will be similar to that of a major Nor’Easter, but the difference will be in the length of time it takes to recover and clean-up the damage. Expect store traffic to be disrupted during the storm and at least a day or two beyond. Power outages will also affect operations along the East Coast. New York City stands the risk of massive flooding which could disrupt business operations into Monday, possibly even Tuesday as Subways and Tunnel systems potentially flood.

A change in the storm track even by as much as 50 miles east or west would dramatically change the outcome from this storm.

As we enter the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, it is prudent to pay special attention to the activity in the tropics. The last couple of weeks have seen a slow pick-up in the amount of tropical activity with a few, forgettable “fish storms”, and currently there is a disturbance in the Caribbean that could develop into the next tropical storm. Fortunately, the storm in the Caribbean will not pose any threat to the U.S. as it meanders towards the Yucatan Peninsula, however, over the past few days, weather forecasting models have been indicating a potentially dangerous storm located just off the West Africa Coast that could have impacts on the U.S. mainland. Luckily, the storm is still about 10 to 14 days away from making any real impacts on the U.S. The tropical disturbance can been seen out in the eastern Atlantic in current satellite images, shown below. The storm will gather strength as it traverses the Atlantic Ocean where conditions are favorable for hurricane development. Where the storm goes as it approaches the Caribbean and Southeastern U.S. is still too early to tell, however, we believe this storm will pose a dangerous threat to the U.S.

The greatest threat from this storm will be along the Southeast Coast, from Florida to the Carolinas, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. We advise retailers in this area to keep a very close eye as the system develops over the next week or so and to position inventory now so that it can easily be distributed to any areas affected by the storm; Atlanta, GA is a strategic location for pre-positioning supplies. Emergency supplies like bottled water, batteries, plywood, first aid kits, and flashlights will be just some of the categories to have on hand.

Check www.wt360.com for your specific forecast.