U.S. AUGUST 2011 SUMMARY: For the 2^nd month in a row, the U.S. as a whole trended the hottest in 19+ years during the retail August. The South Central U.S. and Southern Rocky Mountains were the main areas of hot weather, and even the Western U.S. saw some hotter weather after several months of below normal temperatures. While it was still relatively warm in the East and North Central U.S. temperatures were generally cooler than last year with a favorable cool period during weeks 2 and 3. Wet weather was mainly confined to the Northeast where it was the wettest August in 19+ years, while the rest of the U.S. trended drier. Drought expanded in the South Central U.S. while too much rain in the Northeast increased flood risks. In fact, Philadelphia, PA broke the record for all-time wettest month ever even before Hurricane Irene struck. Speaking of Hurricane Irene, she struck fear in the hearts of consumers from South Carolina to Maine during the final week of the retail August as she threatened to bring historic floods and damage. Irene made landfall as a category 1 storm near Cape Lookout, NC on the final day of the retail August, see her track below.

Hurricane Irene left an impression on retailers as many stores closed early or saw significantly reduced traffic on the final day of the retail month when most people are typically shopping. Consumers shifted focus from Back-to-School shopping to preparing for a hurricane. Home centers will have benefited most from the increase in demand for plywood, plastic sheeting, flashlights and batteries. Malls and department stores were some of the hardest hit retailers as consumers flocked to grocery and discount stores for staples like milk, bread, and bottled water in a pre-blizzard-like frenzy. Earlier in August, the weather was favorable for malls and department stores in the North Central and Eastern U.S. as cooler weather during retail weeks 2 and 3 boosted Back-to-School shopping; even the South Central U.S. saw a brief respite from the hot weather during week 2. With Summer finally awakening in the West, pent-up demand for Summer categories would have spurred spending, although at reduced profit margins for retailers as August is typically a clearance month.

U.K. AUGUST 2011 SUMMARY: August started off relatively mild for the U.K. as a warmer 1^st week broke a 12-week streak of cooler Y-O-Y temperatures. The warmer trends were short-lived though, as cooler weather returned for the middle of the month, but milder weather ended the month. Despite the driest August in 4 years, parts of Scotland were completely drenched in the 1^st half of the month. In fact, some areas in Northeast Scotland received 5 times the normal rainfall for this time of year. The weather turned drier for the latter part of the month, but a storm system during the Summer Bank Holiday weekend brought showers to the Southern U.K. and more persistent rain to Scotland.

Although temperatures were slightly warmer than last year, this was still the 4^th coldest retail August in 19+ years. Cooler than normal temperatures would have favored Autumn categories, especially during the cooler mid-month weeks. Mild weather at the start of the month was favorable as pent-up demand for Summer categories would have spurred sales, although at decreased profit margins for retailers. Cooler than normal weather was generally favorable for retailers, however, the headwinds this month may have muted the positive impacts of weather. The worst rioting since the 1980s in Britain resulted in early store closings and a general dampening of consumer sentiment. Many retailers faced costly losses and repairs as they were the victims of looting and damage. Additionally, concerns over the global economy will have also dampened consumer sentiment, adding to the pinch at the cash register.

G-20 AUGUST 2011 SUMMARY: G-20 temperatures were cooler than last year with slightly cooler trends in the southern parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe and warmer Y-O-Y trends in Australia and Western Europe.  Typhoon Muifa struck regions of Asia in late July and early August allowing for large amounts of precipitation and strong winds. In mid-August, New Zealand experienced some of the coldest and harshest winter weather conditions in decades, leading to mass power outages.

Warmer weather in Western Europe and Central Canada was beneficial for Summer clearance categories. Winter clearance categories in eastern Australia will have been negatively impacted from warmer year-on-year weather, but Spring Categories will have been positively impacted due to an earlier start. An unusual blast of winter weather in New Zealand would have benefited cold weather categories at the expense of early Spring products.  Cooler and drier weather in the southern parts of Africa will have yielded an increase in sales for Winter categories, while warmer and wetter weather in southern Brazil will have negated Winter categories.

Just a week ago, the East Coast was gearing up for Hurricane Irene which proved to be quite the foe for many from the Carolinas through New England. Now, we’re faced with another tropical threat, however, this time we have not 1, but 2 tropical systems to worry about.

Tropical Depression 13, possibly becoming Tropical Storm Lee later today, will be the first to make a run at the U.S. mainland. Currently, TD #13 is meandering about the Gulf of Mexico, south of Louisiana. Parts of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to just near the western tip of the Florida Panhandle are starting to see the bands of showers and thunderstorms. Flooding will be the biggest threat from this system as the storm slowly makes landfall over the Labor Day weekend somewhere along the central Louisiana coast and then very slowly chugs through the state on a northeasterly track. By the middle of next week, the storm is only expected to have made it as far as the Mississippi/Alabama border after which it will dissipate into a low pressure system, losing its tropical characteristics. Current projections are for 10-20” of rain along parts of the Gulf Coast, including New Orleans, LA; Biloxi, MS; Mobile, AL; and Pensacola, FL. Given the slow-moving nature of this storm, widespread flooding will be expected as the storm will continuously dump large amounts of rain over the same areas. On the bright side, the heavy rain will help to eradicate the drought in parts of the Gulf Coast, unfortunately, the parched state of Texas will see very little rain from this storm. Wet vacuums, plastic sheeting, tarps, and clean-up supplies will experience a jump in demand along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida.

While this weekend will be spent focusing on TD #13 close to home, another threat far out in the Atlantic will bear watching over the next week. Hurricane Katia, currently several hundreds of miles east of the Leeward Islands, will eye-up the East Coast of the U.S. as she churns west-northwestward across the Atlantic over the next several days. She is still about 6 to 10 days from any real threat to the U.S. and there are many factors that could alter her track, so the forecast path has a lot of time to change over the coming days. The most current forecasting models take Katia unsettlingly close to the Carolina coastline as she makes a turn to the northeast along the Eastern Seaboard. We will continue to monitor her progress and will issue updates as needed.