Old Man Winter will make a return next week bringing a blizzard to the North Central U.S. Early in the week, a storm system from the Pacific will come onshore bringing some rain and snow to the Northwest. After this system passes over the Rockies, it will ramp up in the Nation’s Heartland bringing heavy snow and high winds to Nebraska, South Dakota and parts of Iowa on Tuesday and Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and northern Michigan on Wednesday. Over a foot of snow could fall in parts of Nebraska and there will be a widespread area of 6-12″ of snow from Nebraska into Wisconsin and lighter amounts on the fringes of the storm. The storm will obviously have short-term impacts on the area, but longer-term impacts also exist with a higher risk of flooding due to the additional snowpack in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. While this storm will bring a blizzard to Blizzard Alley, it will also bring some severe weather impacts to parts of Tornado Alley starting Wednesday night into Thursday. Areas from Arkansas, Louisiana just west of the Appalachians could see some strong thunderstorms with gusty winds, heavy rain and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Over the weekend and just prior to the storm, retailers in the North Central can expect an uptick in store traffic as consumers prepare for the blizzard. Pantry loading foods and rock salt will be just some of the high demand items. Store traffic will be impacted negatively Tuesday and Wednesday in the North Central. Meanwhile, heavy rain in the East will dampen store traffic midweek, while strong storms in the Southeast could bump up demand for clean-up related categories for areas that are hit particularly hard.

U.S. FEBRUARY 2011 SUMMARY: Arctic air and an onslaught of winter storms early in February battered a good portion of what was already a Winter weary US. The record-breaking “Groundhog Day Storm” began the month impacting a vast area from New Mexico to Wisconsin and eastward to Maine; even as far south as the Rio Grande in Texas saw some wintry precipitation. The storm brought blizzard conditions to Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan with reports of snowfall rates of 3-4” per hour. Several roadways, including a 250 mile stretch of I-70, were closed as the snowfall rate outpaced clean-up crews. Ice associated with the storm caused widespread power outages from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic, including New York City. Behind the storm, a blast of Arctic Air caused a surge in energy demand in parts of Texas leading to rolling blackouts and natural gas shortages. Another round of wintry weather dropped 4-6” of snow in Dallas, TX later in the week, hindering Super Bowl preparations. Luckily, the weather calmed down for the weekend allowing consumers to stock up for Super Bowl parties. Week 2 of February brought more wintry mess to parts of the South Central and Deep South with widespread 6-12” of snow from the Texas Panhandle to Kansas and northern Arkansas with isolated amounts of 24”. Snow also spread across Mississippi to northern Georgia and the Carolinas. Like the Groundhog Day Storm, store traffic disruptions occurred during the week with calmer weather on the weekend helping retailers to make up for lost sales. Brutal cold followed the storm in the South Central, with temperatures so low that an all-time new record low was set for Oklahoma of -31^oF.

Image from National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center: www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

 As Valentine’s Day approached and love filled the air, something else was also filling the air in the South…Spring! Temperatures rebounded tremendously during retail week 3 with parts of the South Central US seeing temperature differences of +100^o F from the prior week’s bitter cold lows. Temperatures in the South soared into the 70s and 80s and even the North Central and Northeast states got a taste of Spring with a few days in the 50s and 60s. For the first time in 6 weeks, snowfall trended below what is typical for this time of year. Meanwhile, the West turned cold and wet with a series of strong Pacific storms dropping rain in the valleys and snow on the mountains. The final week of the retail February was another mild one for the South and Southeast, while the rest of the nation dealt with Winter as several storms traversed the nation making this the snowiest end to February in 19+ years. Out West, snow came unusually close to Los Angeles and San Francisco, but accumulating snow was confined to the surrounding hills and mountains. Severe weather in the East caused some damage with tornadoes and numerous reports of wind damage in the Southeast.

Despite all the cold and snowy weather during the first part of the month, the weather in February 2011 was actually more favorable than last year. Recall that last year the storm dubbed “Snowmageddon” dropped a widespread swath of 8-24” of snow in the East with the biggest impacts from the storm on the weekend. While the Groundhog Day Storm was  a massive and record-breaking storm, the highest impacts to store traffic came during the week when traffic is typically lower and the storm caused only minor to moderate disruptions in the major metropolitan areas of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Winter clearance and cold/snow categories would have sold best east of the Rockies during the first half of the month with items like fire logs, hot soups & beverages, snow toys, shovels, deicers and rock salt all seeing a surge in demand. Following Valentine’s Day, warmer weather in the South and East should have caused a surge in Spring category demand. Very warm and drier y-o-y weather in the South was favorable for lawn & garden, auto care, and allergy products as well as store traffic. Colder weather out West during the latter part of February was favorable for Winter clearance, however, wetter weather would have dampened store traffic.

U.K. FEBRUARY 2011 SUMMARY:  February was a mild and unsettled month across the U.K. as several Atlantic systems crossed the country bringing with them mild air and showery weather. Western portions of the country saw the greatest amount of precipitation, while eastern areas of England were drier. Some of the precipitation turned wintry in the north, especially over higher ground, but any snow accumulation had minimal impact for retailers. Warmer and drier weather during the final week of the retail February was a great improvement on last year when heavy rain caused deadly flooding and travel disruptions.

Early Spring categories had much more favorable conditions this year with milder weather increasing consumer awareness that Spring will soon be at hand. Spring apparel and footwear should have experienced stronger demand than last year. Despite wetter weather in Ireland and western Great Britain, drier weather in eastern parts of southern England would have been very favorable for footfall. Meanwhile, rain accessories like slickers, wellies and umbrellas would have sold better to the west. Milder weather was an overall positive for retail sales, however, there were some negative external factors that may end up dampening results. Weak consumer confidence, rising food prices and rising petrol prices at the end of the month would have taken a bite out of the consumer’s disposable income.

G-20 FEBRUARY 2011 SUMMARY: G-20 February temperatures were split with half of the countries trending warmer than last year and half trending colder. The US, Russia and much of western Europe trended milder than last year, while eastern Europe, northern Africa, much of the Middle East, Canada and much of South America trended colder. Australia couldn’t catch a break this month with Tropical Cyclone Yasi impacting northern Queensland and parts of Victoria causing floods and wind damage. At landfall, the storm packed winds gusts of 177 mph and dumped 7.9-11.8” of rain with localized higher amounts. Luckily, the storm did not make landfall on any of the highly populated coastal cities. A potent snow storm mid-month dropped over 3 feet of snow on the Korean Peninsula, making this the largest snow event ever recorded in South Korea. Flooding in west Afghanistan followed early month warmth over the country’s snow packed high terrain.

 Warmer weather in the US, western Europe and Russia was a positive for early Spring categories, while colder weather in western Australia and parts of South America helped to remind consumers that Autumn is on the way. Tropical Cyclone Yasi was disruptive for northern Australia, especially Melbourne. Many farms to the southeast of Melbourne suffered extensive damage due to the floods. Estimates of the total damage from Yasi are around 3.5 billion US dollars, making this the 2^nd most costliest tropical cyclone to affect Australia. Flooding also took it’s toll on crops in Sri Lanka (where up to 90% of the rice crop was threatened). Meanwhile, drought in eastern China continued to cause concern over crops and commodity prices.  The excessive snow in Korea brought transportation to a halt and was very disruptive for store traffic mid-month.

U.S. FEBRUARY 2011 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

U.K. FEBRUARY 2011 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

G20 FEBRUARY 2011 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

U.S. JANUARY 2011 SUMMARY: The month started off favorably with much warmer temperatures and less snow than last year and normal. However, the tide soon turned as several winter storms coated much of the Eastern U.S. in snow and ice. During the 2^nd week of the month, a major winter storm in the East dropped heavy ice and snow from the Great Lakes and Northeast and southward through the South Central and Southeast. Meanwhile, a storm in the Northwest delivered it’s fair share of disruptions as heavy rain and mountain snow hampered store traffic. As the week wore on, the Southwest turned milder and drier with a hint of Spring in the air. Spring was far from the minds of consumers in the East as another round of storms during the 3^rd week of the month brought more snow, ice and disruptions. The Northwest was plagued by heavy rain, while the Southwest remained Spring-like with mild and dry conditions. Nationally, milder y-o-y weather returned for the final week of the month, however, so did the winter weather in the Northeast. An intense storm system dumped 1-2 feet of snow from Washington D.C. to Boston, MA midweek and helped make this the snowiest January on record in New York City, NY. The rest of the nation stayed dry and mild for much of the week.

Greater snowfall than last year and normal gave retailers plenty to contend with this month. With winter storms occurring weekly in the heavily populated East, millions of consumers were stuck at home until the inclement weather passed. Fortunately, the disruptive snow was confined primarily to the middle of the week with the weekends remaining fairly dry. The negatives of the storms were amplified by a traditionally low-volume month with discretionary spending taking a hit. However, must-have winter categories like pantry loading food, shovels, ice melt, bird seed and fire logs were the big winners this month, as well as winter clearance. The Southwest was the bright spot this month as milder and drier weather during the 2^nd half of the month helped to get consumer’s thinking about Spring, getting the early seasonal categories off to a healthy start. Flu activity neared it’s peak with 50% of states reporting widespread flu cases (see map below). Drug stores benefit from a rise in flu cases, although store traffic at other retailers may have taken a slight hit from the increase in the flu. Gas prices dropped slightly following 8 weeks of increases, a minor positive for discretionary spending. WTI expects same-store-sales to come in on the low end or below expectations around 1.5-2.0%.

U.K. JANUARY 2011 SUMMARY:  January trended warmer than last year, however, temperatures were below normal as this was the 5^th coldest retail January in 18+ years. Snowfall was much less than last year, a huge positive for gains in year-over-year footfall, especially since the entire country was covered in snow last year.  A more typical U.K. winter pattern took shape at the start of the month with mild, wet and windy conditions, although there were some wintry showers in Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. Heavy rain and gales made travel difficult during week 2 with floods causing the closure of several roads and railways. Following a very mild week 2, colder weather returned during week 3 along with much more settled conditions. Temperatures fluctuated through the rest of the month with interludes of warmer/wetter weather and colder/drier weather.

Weather was an overall positive for retailers this month with milder temperatures and much less snowfall. Wetter weather at the beginning of the month may have had a dampening effect on footfall, but settled weather at the end of the month was a positive for footfall. Rain gear including rain slickers, wellies and wiper blades should have seen an uptick in demand during the 1^st part of the month, as well as clean-up supplies in parts of Wales and northern England where flooding occurred. Meanwhile, milder weather got consumers thinking about Spring, a positive for early seasonal categories. Colder weather at the end of the month benefited categories like fire logs, pantry loading foods and winter clearance. While weather was a positive for retail sales, retailers still had to contend with low consumer confidence due, in large part, to decreased government spending, and less discretionary income as an increase in VAT was instated. 

G-20 JANUARY 2011 SUMMARY: G-20 January temperatures trended warmer than last year and precipitation trended drier than last year. The story that grasped all the headlines this month was the extreme flooding in Australia’s northeastern state of Queensland. Brisbane, Australia’s 3rd largest city, was directly affected by the flooding with thousands of homes and business destroyed. Flooding also impacted Brazil resulting in the deadliest disaster in Brazil’s history. Parts of the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and South Africa were also impacted by flooding. Elsewhere, not enough rain caused problems in eastern Africa where an ongoing drought continued to take it’s toll on food supplies. Freezing temperatures in India, Bangladesh and southern China brought some businesses to a halt, especially in China as wintry precipitation moved in just as an estimated 230 million people took to the roads for the Lunar New Year, the largest annual human migration in the world! Thousands of people were forced to abandon cars on highways as roadways became impassable.

The flooding in Queensland had a huge impact on the overall economy of Australia with clean-up and rebuilding costs estimated to top 30 billion Australian dollars. Over 75% of coal-producing operations were shut down, which had impacts worldwide as Queensland supplies just under half of the world’s coking coal. Flooding in South Africa affected the soybean and sunflower harvests and damages are estimated to top 280 million U.S. dollars. Freezing temperatures and wintry precipitation in southern China destroyed approximately 350,000 acres of crops, including cabbage and rice. Economic losses are expected to be in the 200 million U.S. dollar range. Meanwhile, much warmer yr/yr weather was a positive for store traffic and retail sales in Europe and Russia, while colder weather in Canada supported cold weather seasonal categories.

U.S. JANUARY 2011 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

U.K. JANUARY 2011 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

G-20 JANUARY 2011 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

Severe flooding has crippled Brisbane, the 3^rd largest city in Australia, with devastating results. Tens of thousands of homes and businesses are projected to sustain severe damage by the floods and at least 22 lives have been claimed with dozens still missing. Heavy rain during Australia’s wet season, which typically lasts through March, is to blame for the overflowing rivers and creeks, however, there is a much larger force driving these heavy rain events. In 1974 and 1955, comparable widespread, severe flooding swept across southeast Queensland with similar, devastating results. Like 1974 and 1955, today we are experiencing a strong La Niña event which is playing a big role in fueling the heavy rain.

The www.wt360.com forecast for Brisbane shows that the heavy rain is projected to slacken within the next 2 weeks, however, the rainy season in eastern Australia is far from over and so is La Niña, which is expected to gradually weaken through the southern hemisphere’s Autumn.

 Rainfall is forecast to be above normal for February and March 2011 in eastern Australia (see maps below) so Queensland may not be out of the woods yet. On the bright side, impacts from a tropical cyclone appear to be unlikely for the next couple of weeks in eastern Australia.

The Australian economy is taking a major blow from this natural disaster as the agricultural rich region of southeast Queensland is getting virtually consumed by flood waters, as seen in this satellite image of Ipswich, a suburb of Brisbane.

The coal industry in Queensland has shut down costing millions in deferred exports and impacting global prices. Vegetable, fruit and sugarcane crops have been wiped out causing food prices to skyrocket across eastern Australia. Industry experts predict that the flooding could cut 1% off of growth in Queensland which is equivalent to AUS$13 billion and 0.3% of Australia’s GDP. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh stated that cleanup and restoration costs could be of post-war proportions. Additionally, the flood threatens to jeopardize the Australian government’s pledge to return to surplus by 2012-2013 as financial aid assistance will put a strain on the budget. This event could end up being the single, costliest natural disaster in the history of Australia. Although flooding in Brisbane is reported to be not as severe as the 1974 floods, major development of previously unoccupied land in the city has put more people and property at risk.

To view the short and long-range forecast for Brisbane or any location in the world, visit www.wt360.com

U.S. DECEMBER 2010 SUMMARY: Although temperatures trended warmer than last year for the nation as a whole, the retail December 2010 still ranked as the 3^rd coldest in 18+ years. Colder and drier weather ensnared the Eastern half of the U.S. while a different story played out in the West with warmer and wetter weather. The crucial final weekend before Christmas played out favorably for the northern half of the nation as drier weather prevailed, however, the West and Rocky Mountains did not fare as well. A series of Pacific storms pounded the Western U.S. bringing flooding rains to CA, AZ and NV and excessive snow of 10-20 feet to the Sierra Mountains. Despite snowier conditions in the Southeast, Southwest and Northwest, snow was the least in 3 years for the U.S. as a whole. Immediately following Christmas, a major Nor’easter churned up the East Coast but only brought impacts to New Jersey and the New York City area where 1-2 feet of snow brought travel to a standstill. Retailers heavily based in this area would have felt an impact from this storm, but most were relatively unscathed.

Colder than normal temperatures helped to drive demand of seasonal items like firelogs, heavy outerwear, comfort foods, etc. The West was the challenging spot this month with exceptionally wet weather dampening store traffic. A drier and less snowy retail December was a benefit to retail sales and will help to push same-store-sales above Wall Street expectations. Given the favorable weather and improving economy, WTI expects sales to come in at +4.5%.

U.K. DECEMBER 2010 SUMMARY:  The retail December 2010 was a very challenging month for retailers as exceptionally cold and snowy weather kept many consumers hunkered down at home and resulted in the loss of holiday sales. Temperatures were the coldest in over 100 years for the U.K. as a whole, while precipitation trended the driest in at least 30 years. The first 2 weeks of the month saw temperatures trending much colder than last year and normal with snowfall disrupting travel in Scotland and northern England. A very brief respite arrived during the 2^nd weekend of the month with temperatures trending warmer than last year, however, colder temperatures and snow quickly returned in the following week. Southeast England and the southern Midlands experienced the worst of the wintry weather’s impact during the weekend prior to Christmas. Snow and icy roadways continued to be an issue in the final days leading up to Christmas. Milder weather came a bit too late to save the 2010 holiday shopping season as the final week of the month was the first week to trend warmer than last year since early November.

Bitterly cold temperatures and snow were favorable for items like heavy outerwear, car batteries, comfort foods, body lotions, heaters, snow removal items, etc. However, footfall was severely impacted by the cold and snow. Gift categories will have struggled this year since many consumers’ shopping plans were altered or all together canceled due to the poor weather and travel conditions. Although colder weather lingered into Boxing Day, travel conditions were much improved over previous weeks and retailers, especially in London, reported heavy footfall. Milder weather following the Christmas holiday was favorable for footfall as consumers browsed post-holiday sales and rushed to beat the VAT increase in January. Overall, like-for-like sales are expected to come in below expectations when they are announced later in January.

G-20 DECEMBER 2010 SUMMARY: December 2010 was a particularly chilly month for many as G-20 temperatures trended -1.3^o C colder than last year. The eastern United States and northern Europe were dealt the biggest blow from Old Man Winter with bitterly cold and snowy conditions. Cold and snow persisted through the first 3 weeks of the month in northern Europe with snow affecting many areas unaccustomed to snowfall. A forest fire in Israel at the start of the month was one of the worst in their history and was brought on by windy and dry conditions. Shortly following the fire, a powerful cyclone pounded the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East with torrential rains and high winds. Although the storm brought some short-term disruptions to shipping activities, it did help to alleviate a prolonged drought in Syria, Lebanon and Israel. Shipping operations were also disrupted in Central America as weeks of torrential rain forced the first ever weather-related closure of the Panama Canal on the 8th and 9th of December. Rain affected Colombia, Panama and Venezuela resulting in mudslides and flooding.

Winter seasonal categories were the favored items in the eastern U.S. and northern Europe, however, abnormally severe conditions in northern Europe made travel difficult and kept many consumers at home. Particularly perilous conditions just prior to Christmas resulted in the loss of last minute shopping sales and dampened gift category demand. During the lengthy cold outbreak, energy prices in Europe increased which impacted consumer’s discretionary income. In the southern hemisphere, colder weather was a negative for Spring seasonal categories with eastern Australia seeing especially poor conditions as cooler and wetter (flooding rains in some areas) dampened seasonal demand and store traffic. Of course, any of the areas that were struck by flooding this month will have seen store traffic numbers affected with a spike in demand for clean up categories. Flooding also endangered crops for farmers, like the coffee crops in Venezuela.