It is a good thing that most meteorologists have two eyes in their head as we will need both of them to track two tropical weather disturbances.

Tropical Storm Katia, currently in the central Atlantic, will continue to move to the west-northwest over the next several days and is destined to strengthen into the next Major Hurricane of the season.  Expectations are that Katia will re-curve well east of the U.S. and possibly threaten Bermuda before weakening as she heads back out over the colder waters of the North Atlantic.  The track of Katia is expected to remain steady as a cold front moving through the eastern U.S. this weekend should help to block a westward shift in the storm, but that was also a possibility with Irene who ended up doing her own thing than what was forecast 5 days out.  So we need to keep one eye on Katia.

The second disturbance worth watching is currently near Cancun, Mexico.  All indications point to a slow strengthening of this system this weekend with a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm (Lee) forming by Sunday or Monday (9/4-5) somewhere off the Texas Gulf Coast.  There is fairly good agreement that this will happen, unfortunately after Monday there is no agreement on where the storm will go.  Our best estimate is that it will follow the middle track and move along the Texas Gulf Coast before making landfall somewhere near Houston onWednesday (9/7) or Thursday (9/8).  The primary threat from “Lee” would be flooding due to the slow moving nature of the storm.   At this point, the track of the storm does not look like it will bring large amounts of rain to central Texas but will instead drench only the coastal areas, so the drought in much of Texas will continue.

Impacts to retailers and consumers are expected to be minimal with increasing chances for rainfall in East Texas hampering store traffic.  As long as Katia remains well offshore its impact will also be minimal.

All eyes are nervously watching Hurricane Irene as she lashes the Bahamas with Category 3 strength (sustained winds 111-130 mph). Forecasts strengthen the storm over the next 12 to 24 hours and Irene could attain Category 4 strength (sustained winds 131-155 mph) as she chugs along a northward track. Residents and business owners along the North Carolina coast, including the Outer Banks where Irene may make landfall on Saturday, are bracing for the storm, shuttering windows and evacuating to higher ground. Current tracks take Irene along a generally north-northeasterly path, putting the Mid-Atlantic Coast at a real risk of severe impacts from this storm. After riding up the New Jersey coastline Sunday, possibly still as a Category 1 storm (sustained winds 74-95 mph), the storm is anticipated to move onshore near New York City and Connecticut Sunday evening and then rumble on northward, decreasing in strength.

Major cities along the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Boston, should take action now in anticipation of Irene. Recent heavy rainfall over much of the Northeast, including today’s soaking rain, have left grounds saturated and prone to flooding. Irene could dump upwards of 5 inches of rain anywhere from just west of the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Boston and to the coastal regions. This very heavy rainfall combined with soggy grounds will cause widespread flooding resulting in damage and travel disruptions. Tropical Storm-force winds will have a vast reach with Irene and could extend to just west of the I-95 corridor. Expect downed trees and power lines to cut power to thousands and cause travel hazards.  Along the immediate coastline, storm surge and heavy rain will cause coastal flooding, leaving many areas underwater and unreachable, and tropical storm-force to hurricane-force winds will cause damage. The storm will exit the Northeast on Monday, followed by much more settled weather.

Impacts: Retailers up and down the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine will experience elevated store traffic ahead of the storm as residents stock up on emergency supplies and food. Tarps, plastic sheeting, plywood, flashlights, batteries, first aid kits, and bottled water will be some of the big sellers, especially the closer the store is situated to the coast. The impacts from Irene will be similar to that of a major Nor’Easter, but the difference will be in the length of time it takes to recover and clean-up the damage. Expect store traffic to be disrupted during the storm and at least a day or two beyond. Power outages will also affect operations along the East Coast. New York City stands the risk of massive flooding which could disrupt business operations into Monday, possibly even Tuesday as Subways and Tunnel systems potentially flood.

A change in the storm track even by as much as 50 miles east or west would dramatically change the outcome from this storm.

As we enter the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, it is prudent to pay special attention to the activity in the tropics. The last couple of weeks have seen a slow pick-up in the amount of tropical activity with a few, forgettable “fish storms”, and currently there is a disturbance in the Caribbean that could develop into the next tropical storm. Fortunately, the storm in the Caribbean will not pose any threat to the U.S. as it meanders towards the Yucatan Peninsula, however, over the past few days, weather forecasting models have been indicating a potentially dangerous storm located just off the West Africa Coast that could have impacts on the U.S. mainland. Luckily, the storm is still about 10 to 14 days away from making any real impacts on the U.S. The tropical disturbance can been seen out in the eastern Atlantic in current satellite images, shown below. The storm will gather strength as it traverses the Atlantic Ocean where conditions are favorable for hurricane development. Where the storm goes as it approaches the Caribbean and Southeastern U.S. is still too early to tell, however, we believe this storm will pose a dangerous threat to the U.S.

The greatest threat from this storm will be along the Southeast Coast, from Florida to the Carolinas, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. We advise retailers in this area to keep a very close eye as the system develops over the next week or so and to position inventory now so that it can easily be distributed to any areas affected by the storm; Atlanta, GA is a strategic location for pre-positioning supplies. Emergency supplies like bottled water, batteries, plywood, first aid kits, and flashlights will be just some of the categories to have on hand.

Check www.wt360.com for your specific forecast.

U.S. MAY 2011 SUMMARY: Cool weather started off the month, but temperatures moderated during week 2 leading to an exceptional week with temperatures reaching the 80s and 90s across the East. The weather turned less favorable for the remainder of May with much cooler temperatures and a return of widespread severe weather. There was some light at the end of the cool, stormy tunnel for the East as heat began to build towards the Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures in the West were below normal for the 2^nd year in a row and heavy mountain snow added to record high snow packs. The weather grabbed the headlines with outbreaks of severe storms, major flooding, and extreme drought making it seem like the apocalypse was at hand. The month actually started out on a quiet note with the 1^st week of May seeing the least severe weather activity since mid-March, however, severe weather came back with a vengeance by mid-May. Flooding along the Mississippi, Ohio and Missouri Rivers closed parts of major interstates, waterways and railways affecting product distribution. Meanwhile, the drought across the South Central states deepened, although there was some relief in northeastern Texas by the end of May.

A cooler and wetter May was a negative for seasonal categories, however, there were some favorable periods. Warm and dry weather during the week of Mother’s Day provided a burst of pent-up demand for warm weather categories including swimwear, sun care, bbq products, and lawn & garden in the East. Building heat going into the Memorial Day weekend in the East was another positive for retailers as consumers prepared for the holiday weekend with camping supplies, sun care, pool toys and chemicals, picnic foods, charcoal, lawn & garden and outdoor DIY supplies. Unsettled weather associated with a string of stalled frontal boundaries dampened store traffic at stand-alone retailers, but benefited mall-based traffic at various points during weeks 1, 3, & 4. Meanwhile, cool weather in the West was a negative for seasonal categories and similar to last year, but wetter weather this year was an additional negative. Severe weather and flooding increased home center traffic as consumers cleaned up, however, areas directly hit by strong storms would have seen a disruption to store traffic (see tornado reports log below). Drought in the South Central was a negative for lawn & garden categories like mowers and fertilizers as a lack of rain subdued vegetation growth and water restrictions limited consumers’ ability to care for their lawns and gardens.

U.K. MAY 2011 SUMMARY: Temperatures for the U.K. as a whole trended the warmest in 3 years and warmer than what is typical for this time of year. Precipitation was much higher than last year, but closer to normal as last year, May 2010, was the driest retail May in 19+ years (see precipitation maps below). Actually, southern locations in England were much drier than normal and the lack of rainfall sparked wildfires and caused problems for arable farmers. A majority of the precipitation was contained to the north of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland where rainfall was higher than normal. The first half of the month was the most favorable with much warmer year-on-year weather boosting demand for warm weather categories like apparel, footwear, sun care, grilling products, ice cream and cold beverages. Wetter y-o-y weather was a negative for footfall, except in southern England. Cooler weather during the 2nd half of the month dampened demand for seasonal categories, especially going into the Spring Bank Holiday weekend. Cooler and wetter weather will have dampened outdoor DIY, lawn & garden, and camping gear, although southeast England still received below normal amounts of rainfall.

G-20 MAY 2011 SUMMARY: Warmer and drier weather in eastern Europe was very favorable for Spring and outdoor categories like apparel, footwear, cold beverages, sun care, ice cream, and lawn & garden products. Meanwhile in the Southern Hemisphere, warmer weather in Argentina and Chile was a negative as milder weather dampened demand for Autumn categories. Conversely, cooler year-on-year weather in Australia was a positive for Autumn categories like long-sleeved shirts, jeans, and heaters. Flooding in Colombia, southwestern Africa and the eastern Philippines displaced many people and caused extensive crop losses, a negative for their economies.

On the heels of a robust 2010 hurricane season, the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season looks to be less active, but still above normal. WTI projects that there will be 14 storms with 3 reaching  hurricane status and 6 attaining major hurricane strength (category 3 or higher); the rest will be tropical or extra-tropical storms. In total, 9 storms will reach hurricane status and above. The 2011 season, which officially started June 1^st, will see the first storm by late June and the activity will last through early November.

The season will be characterized by a series of long-lived Cape Verde storms, or storms that form in the central Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands (west of Africa). These storms will have a tendency to re-curve before reaching the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, but will often threaten the Carolina coastline. For the past 2 hurricane seasons the U.S. has been lucky as no hurricanes made landfall, this year we may not be so lucky. WTI expects 2 landfalling storms with North Carolina at a heightened risk for impacts from a storm. Climatologically speaking, if no hurricanes were to make landfall this year, it would be the first time in over 100 years that the U.S. went 3 years without a direct strike from a hurricane. Furthermore, if no major hurricanes (category 3 or higher) make landfall this year, then that would be the first time in recorded history that the U.S. went 6 years without a landfalling major hurricane.

Retailers along the East Coast, particularly in the Carolinas, should be on guard this season as any landfalling hurricane will bring disruptions to store traffic and increase demand for emergency supplies like batteries, flashlights, bottled water, tarps, plastic sheeting, plywood, and non-perishable foods. While the threat is not as high in the Gulf of Mexico and Peninsula of Florida, retailers there should also keep an eye on the weather as a stray storm or 2 will not be out of the question.