As the system that brought several rounds of severe weather to the Central and Eastern U.S. this week moves offshore this weekend, an area of high pressure will strengthen and build in the East. The high pressure will help to guide hot, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic states from Sunday (May 29^th) through at least Tuesday (May 31^st). Temperatures across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will soar into the 90s, or at least the upper 80s, for several days making for ideal beach/lake/pool weather for the Memorial Day holiday. Temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 90^oF for 3 days or more, satisfying the criteria for an official heat-wave. The heat-wave will impact many Mid-Atlantic cities including Charlotte, NC; Richmond, VA; Washington, D.C.; Baltimore, MD; and Philadelphia, PA. The weather will remain mainly dry, but humid, under the high pressure, however, a pop-up shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. A cold front moving through mid-week will sweep out the hot weather and replace it with more seasonable, but cooler year-over-year conditions by next weekend (June 4^th-5^th).

With the heat will come a surge in demand for hot weather categories like fans, air conditioners, ice cream, cold beverages, pool supplies, swim wear, sandals, and sun care to name a few. Demand will be especially strong in the Mid-Atlantic as this will be the first heat-wave of the season in this region. Last year was also a rather warm Memorial Day weekend in the Mid-Atlantic, however, this year there is much more pent-up demand due to the recent cool weather.

U.S. APRIL 2011 SUMMARY: April 2011 was a wild month of weather with wildfires, drought, snow, flooding and outbreaks of severe weather prevailing throughout the month. The month got off to a turbulent start with nearly 1,500 reports of severe weather in a 24 hour period, mainly across the Southeast. Active weather continued for the duration of the month, but the final week of April was by far the most destructive. From April 26^th through the 28^th a storm system slowly moved from the Central U.S. to the East Coast producing an unprecedented amount of violent tornadoes. Some of the same areas that experienced severe weather, also dealt with flooding as snow melt from an abnormally high snow pack caused rivers to swell and excessive rainfall pushed rivers over their banks. Many rivers reached major flood stage from Arkansas to Indiana and across the Dakotas and parts of northern New England. Meanwhile, not enough rain in the South Central U.S. endangered crops and caused wildfires. Despite the extreme weather of April, temperatures followed a classic Spring-time pattern with warm weather in the South and cooler weather to the North. The 2^nd warmest April in 19+ years across the Southeast was counteracted with the coldest and 2^nd coldest April across the Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains, respectively.  Following nearly a month of cool weather with intermittent, brief spells of milder weather, the East Coast finally got a break during the final week of April with a prolonged period of milder weather.

Emergency and storm clean-up supplies would have seen strong demand this month, especially across the Southeast and Midwest due to severe weather and flooding. Tarps, paint, lumber, batteries, chain saws, and bottled water were just a few of the necessary products. Store traffic would have experienced disruptions following severe weather as roads became impassable and some stores sustained damage themselves. The drought across the South Central states should have boosted irrigation supplies and gardening tools like sprinklers and hoses. Meanwhile, warm weather across the Southern U.S. was a positive for Spring seasonal categories like apparel, cold beverages, lawn & garden, sun care, bbq supplies and ice cream. Colder weather to the north dampened demand for Spring categories, however, mild weather along the East coast during the final week of the month should have boosted Spring categories. The week leading up to Easter was most favorable across the South with holiday-related gifts and food categories receiving a boost from increased store traffic thanks to milder and drier y-o-y weather. The calendar shift of Easter into the retail April will inflate retail sales results with milder weather in the South and increased traffic at home centers also helping to boost sales, while colder weather in the North will have acted as a drag on same-store-sales results.

U.K. APRIL 2011 SUMMARY: The weather was nothing short of exceptional across all of the U.K. this month. April 2011 ranks as one of the top 15 warmest, driest and sunniest Aprils since records began over 100 years ago! All 4 weeks of the retail April trended both warmer and drier than normal. Although dry weather wasn’t good news for everyone as farmers and gardeners dealt with arid conditions and the concerns of a possible drought intensified after 6 weeks of below normal precipitation. The week leading into the Easter holiday weekend was the warmest so far this year and very settled which led to the development of smog across England and Wales. Cooler weather settled in during the following week and accompanied the Royal Wedding celebrations, although temperatures were still above normal. Very dry weather was a benefit to the many celebrations and street parties taking place in honor of the Wedding.

Positives outweigh the negatives this month with one of the warmest, driest and sunniest Aprils on record spurring demand for Spring and outdoor categories like DIY, lawn & garden, allergy products, cold beverages, Spring fashions, grilling meats, salads, sun care, and auto care to name a few. Mild and dry weather in the week leading up to Easter boosted footfall and holiday sales of gifts, decorations and food. The Royal Wedding was a positive for novelties and food categories, and dry and relatively mild weather going into the May Day weekend was favorable for camping gear, grilling products and outdoor DIY categories. Dry conditions prompted increased demand for irrigation supplies, hoses and sprinklers. Like-for-like sales are expected to see improvement on last year as very favorable weather, the Easter calendar shift, the Royal Wedding, and very easy comparisons to last year will all help to boost retail sales.

G-20 APRIL 2011 SUMMARY: Temperatures trended warmer than last year across the G-20 with much of the warmth encompassing a large area from eastern Russia, southward to China, and western Europe, Mexico and southern South America. Colder year-on-year weather was most pronounced across Canada and the northern U.S., much of Africa, India, Australia, and Indonesia. Very dry conditions in East Africa and parts of the Middle East resulted in droughts and sandstorms. Bangladesh received flooding rains from a cyclone early in the month which also caused mudslides. Flooding was also a problem in southwestern Africa, especially in Namibia and Angola.

Warmer weather across the Northern Hemisphere benefited Spring categories, and drier weather in western Europe, China, and Mexico helped to boost store traffic. Meanwhile, much colder and wetter weather in Canada, Indonesia and Turkey dampened store traffic and demand for seasonal categories. In the Southern Hemisphere, cooler weather in Australia benefited Autumn categories like jeans and portable heaters. Bangladesh suffered crop losses due to flooding and hail associated with the early month cyclone and Kenyan farmers lost thousands of livestock due to dried up water sources.

U.S. APRIL 2011 RETAIL BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

U.K. APRIL 2011 RETAIL BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

G-20 APRIL 2011 RETAIL BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

76 years ago today the defining dust storms of the Dust Bowl swept across several Southern Plains states, turning day into night and earning its title as “Black Sunday”. While this region had become accustomed to dust storms caused by a prolonged drought and poor agricultural tactics, the 20 dust storms on Black Sunday were particularly hazardous as the storms shrouded several states in darkness with near zero visibility and dust drifts (dirt’s equivalent to a snow drift). Although an exact amount cannot be pinned for the agricultural losses of the 1930s Dust Bowl, estimates put the total into the billions of dollars (and that’s 1930s dollar estimates!). Can you imagine seeing this wall of dirt charging your way?

Dust storm closes in on Spearman, Texas on April 14th 1935. Photograph by F.W. Brandt, Weather Bureau cooperative observer at Spearman. Courtesy of www.weatherwise.org.

Today, severe droughts in the South Central U.S. are threatening agricultural sectors and water supplies, albeit not as extremely as the Dust Bowl droughts. Texas is one of the hardest hit states currently with 98% of Texas in a drought and at least 60% of the state in an extreme of exceptional drought with an exceptional drought being the highest rating on the U.S. Drought Monitor scale. Hot, persistently dry and windy weather has helped to spur wildfires which are burning in several counties across Texas with over 100,000 acres consumed by the flames thus far. Farmers in the South Central states are concerned as crops struggle to grow in the extremely dry conditions, particularly during a time when commodity prices are soaring causing farmers to miss out on extra revenue. The opposite was true during the Dust Bowl when crop prices were low following the Great Depression and overproduction stemming from World War 1, so farmers were in dire straits as they needed to sell even more crops than normal to pay the bills, but the dry conditions made increased production impossible. To the chagrin of consumers, many farmers are currently selling off cattle herds to cut costs during the drought which, in turn, lowers the beef supply and raises commodity prices even higher.

Latest observations from the U.S. Drought Monitor www.drought.unl.edu  shows parts of Texas in exceptional drought.

As the drought lingers on and global demand for commodities like corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat increases, consumers can expect food and clothing prices to continue to soar, limiting discretionary spending. Irrigation supplies should have been strong sellers in the South Central thus far this Spring as hot and dry weather has persisted. The maps below show the temperature and precipitation trends for March 2011 versus what is typical for March with the South Central states showing warmer to much warmer than normal and much drier than normal trends. Insect control products are also likely to have seen a spike in sales this Spring in the South Central U.S. as several crop-destroying insects have arrived early due to the warm/dry weather, prompting farmers to spray multiple applications of pesticides.

March 2011 temperature and precipitation versus normal trends show a warmer and much drier South Central U.S. fueling the drought and wildfires. Image from Weather Trends International.

So what does the future hold for the drought-stricken region and is there relief in sight? The answer is largely dependent upon the current La Nina we are experiencing. As noted on our Commodity Weather Blog by colleague Dr. Michael Ferrari, Vice President of Applied Technology & Research here at Weather Trends International, many forecasting groups are projecting that La Nina will “die off” within the 1-1.5 months, however, there is a risk for this transition to take longer as a few of the La Nina indicators suggest that she (La Nina) may be around for another 2-3 months. As shown on the chart below, La Nina events are not the wettest of times in the South Central U.S., especially West Texas, Oklahoma and southwest Kansas. So, relief doesn’t appear to be imminent for farmers in the South Central states, which will limit their capability to keep up with global demand in the months to come.

Precipitation ranks during La Nina events from April through June. Courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

U.S. MARCH 2011 SUMMARY: March was a tale of two halves with milder Spring-like weather in the South and colder Winter-like weather to the North. There was a brief surge of milder weather during the middle of the month in the North but was quickly swept out by a storm which brought 5-10′ of snow to parts of the Sierra Nevada, 1-2′ of snow in the North Central U.S., and a few inches of snow in the Northeast. The weather pattern was very active this month with a series of powerful storms traversing the nation bringing heavy precipitation and increasing the flood threat along many rivers in the Midwest and North Central states. The East was particularly wet at the beginning of the month with several storms in the first 2 weeks of March causing floods which were exacerbated by the melting of the abnormally high snow pack. The West experienced wetter weather towards the middle to end of the month with a series of storms which produced heavy precipitation. In the South, the weather was much more favorable with warmer and drier weather dominating through much of the month. However, the battle between Winter in the North and Spring in the South resulted in a couple of severe weather outbreaks in the Southeast, in fact, March 2011 tornadic activity was +230% greater than last year.

Retailers in the South enjoyed a warmer and drier retail March, a major positive for Spring categories. Items like sun care, swimwear, apparel, footwear, auto care, lawn & garden, bbq, cold beverages, allergy relief, filters, and irrigation products should have seen single to double digit sales gains year-over-year. The higher occurrence of severe weather outbreaks in the Southeast should have put a larger emphasis on clean-up categories than last year when severe weather was at near-record low levels. Colder and snowier weather in the North was a major drag on Spring categories with just a brief respite from the Winter-like conditions during the middle of the month. Another drag on the month was the loss of pre-Easter sales due to the Easter calendar shift into late April. Retailers heavily based in the Northern half of the country will have seen the biggest impacts from weather this month, while retailers with a stronger hold in the South will have reaped benefits from the weather in March 2011.

U.K. MARCH 2011 SUMMARY: Temperatures trended warmer than last year for the U.K. as a whole with a cooler than normal start to the month and a warmer than normal end to the retail March 2011. Warmer temperatures than last year occurred every week except week 3 when temperatures trended much colder than last year. Precipitation trended drier than last year with the driest March in 50 years for England and Wales. During the first part of the month, below normal temperatures and wetter weather in Northern Ireland and Scotland resulted in a bit of wintry precipitation, which was more prominent on higher ground. Luckily, relief soon followed as the final 2 weeks of March brought milder and drier weather across the country.

Spring categories had much improved weather conditions over last year with warmer and drier weather boosting demand. The first 2 weeks of March should have lifted year-on-year demand for some Spring categories, however, much wetter weather in Scotland and Ireland will have dampened footfall. The middle of the month was the least favorable period with much colder weather subduing Spring categories, but providing some final opportunities for Winter clearance. The final 2 weeks of the month were the most favorable of the month with warmer and much drier weather boosting categories like Spring apparel, footwear, sun care, car wash/wax, grilling products, lawn & garden, allergy products and cold beverages to name a few. Much drier weather was a positive for footfall, especially at open air shopping centres. External factors like the loss of pre-Easter sales and rising petrol prices will have impacted sales, but much more favorable weather and Mothering Sunday gift purchases during the final week of March should have helped to lessen the negative impacts.

G-20 MARCH 2011 SUMMARY: Temperatures across the G-20 trended colder than last year and precipitation trended drier. The greatest change towards colder weather was across Canada and parts of western and southern Asia. There were a few pockets of warmer year-on-year weather in Mexico, western Europe, Russia and Scandinavia. March 2011 tied March 2007 as the warmest retail March in 19+ years for Mexico as a whole; precipitation trended the 3^rd driest. Queensland, Australia couldn’t catch a break this month as monsoonal rains brought more flooding to the region, in fact, 2011 is on track to be the 2^nd or 3^rd wettest in 19+ years for Australia as a whole. A powerful storm early in the month in Greece dumped several inches of snow and brought winds up to 80mph which caused disruptions to the transportation system. Rescue and recovery efforts were hampered in Japan following the devastating earthquake and tsunami as temperatures trended the coldest in 19+ years.

Cooler weather in the southern hemisphere, including South America and Australia, was favorable for Autumn categories. Warmer and drier weather in Mexico and the southern United States benefited Spring categories and store traffic. Much colder weather in Canada extended the season for Winter categories, while a colder western and southern Asia dampened demand for Spring categories. Flooding in northeastern Australia would have negatively impacted store traffic, while the early month snow storm in Greece impacted traffic around Athens. Japanese retailers struggled with stock outs and mass disruptions following the earthquake and tsunami with the coldest conditions in 19+ years only adding to the stress on the economy.

U.S. MARCH 2011 RETAIL BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

U.K. MARCH 2011 RETAIL BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

G-20 MARCH 2011 RETAIL BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

Old Man Winter has one more trick up his sleeve for the Northeastern U.S. and what better day to ‘play his tricks’ than April Fool’s Day (April 1^st). Actually, the action will begin late on Thursday as a low pressure system in the Southeast rides up the East Coast, bringing the threat of severe weather to the Florida Peninsula and rain elsewhere in the Southeast on Thursday. The system will rapidly intensify into a Nor’easter as it passes east of New Jersey on Thursday night drawing in colder air and causing some areas to change from rain to snow, mainly north and west of the I-95 corridor. Luckily, this storm will spare the big coastal cities, which will see mainly rain and some wet snow with little accumulation, but plenty of wind. Farther inland, the snow could be a bit more intense overnight on Thursday with a couple of inches of accumulation from the northern and western suburbs of Philadelphia westward to central Pennsylvania and up through western New York. The heaviest snow will be confined to eastern New York, western and northern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine where the National Weather Service has already posted Winter Storm Watches.  In these areas, widespread accumulations of 6-12 inches are possible with greater amounts up to 18 inches on the higher terrain. As with all Nor’easter, a change in the storm’s track east or west will greatly alter the area of greatest impact.

Given the temperature structure this time of year, the impacts of this storm will rely heavily on the intensity at which the snow falls. Snow will easily accumulate overnight on Thursday, but with temperatures rising into the mid and upper 30s during the day on Friday across much of New England the snow won’t hang around long on roadways. Given the milder temperatures with this storm, the snow will be a heavy, wet snow which could lead to power outages as tree limbs and power lines succumb to the added weight. Also, gusty winds will increase the threat of power outages in New England.  The greatest impacts will be in New England where store traffic on Friday could be negatively impacted, however, rapid melting of the snow from paved surfaces should leave the weekend relatively unaffected. Expect an increase in traffic ahead of the storm on Thursday as consumers rush to buy the typical staples: bread, milk, and eggs. If there are any remaining winter/snow removal items left on the shelves, expect those to go quickly as well.