A potent storm system could bring a "White Christmas" for many

Twas the days before Christmas, when all through the land
All the people were shopping, to find that right brand.
The shelves at the store were piled high with care,
In hopes that more shoppers soon would be there.

The stores were aglow with holiday gear,
While there were visions of more sales, especially year-on-year.
 And Mamma in her coat and I in my cap,
Dashed across the parking lot heading for the Gap.

When out on the West Coast arose such a clatter,
A mega snowstorm was slamming the Sierra Nevada.
Away to the radar I flew like a flash,
Checked my forecast models and scratched my moustache.

There on the screen was a mega snowstorm
With snow and rain beyond what was norm.
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
A new storm was forming that would bring travelers fear.

With a strong little jet stream so lively and quick,
I knew in a moment that the snow could be thick.
More rapid than plows the storm’s impact came,
And I whistled and shouted and called the states by name.

Now Kansas! Now Missouri! Now Illinois and Indy!
On Kentucky! On Virginia, On Maryland and Delaware!
To the Atlantic it shall move and then I do not know,
It could turn up the coast and New England could see snow.

The winds will be strong with a cold gusty blow,
Sending a frosty chill to states below.
So out come the shovels to do battle with the snow,
Rock salt and ice scrapers, will see their sales grow. 

I spoke not a word but got to the store real quick,
Picked up eggs, bread, milk and a box of Bisquick.
Into the basket goes a fire log or two,
A sweater and mittens, there that will do.

The snow and the cold will bring traveling jeers this holiday season,
But retailers will smile as increased sales and higher margins will be the reason.
The storm will wind down at the start of the new week,
But cold weather will follow and is not for the meek.

A warm up is likely by the New Year,
Though another storm may foul up ringing in the cheer.
But as I shut down my computer and pondered the storm’s plight,
I said Merry Christmas to all and it looks like it’s going to be white!

Settled weather and seasonal temperatures presently gracing the U.K. are going to be distant memories by this weekend as yet another wintry blast of cold and snow encompass much of the nation. Winds will freshen out of the North ushering in cold, Arctic air and showers of rain, sleet or snow. Higher grounds of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England will be the first to see the snow. Areas where the precipitation begins as rain will see a switch over to snow by Thursday afternoon/evening creating hazardous travel conditions as roadways turn icy. Winds will pick up and gust to over 80 km/hr in some areas which will cause snow drifts and additional hazards for travelers. Temperatures over the weekend will struggle to rise above freezing for much of the country. Widespread snowfall totals by Friday night will be on the order of 5-10 cm and locally up to 20 cm especially on higher grounds in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Additional accumulations of snow will take place over the weekend adding an additional 5-10 cm for many areas.

While wintry weather will help to get people into a festive holiday spirit, it could spell disaster for retailers on this crucial last weekend before Christmas. Ice and snow covered roadways will make traveling difficult and could affect footfall especially for stand alone retailers. A return to bitterly cold temperatures will help to keep demand strong for Winter essentials like heaters, hot soups/beverages, fire logs, snow removal products and electric blankets, but at the expense of gift categories. Sunday looks to be the most favorable day of the weekend with less widespread heavy snow, however, the cold air will remain in place which will hinder a thaw of the lying snow and ice. Periods of snow showers will continue into the work week.

The Eastern 2/3rds of the U.S. is in the grips of a frigid Winter chill and things are only going to get worse before they get better. Over the weekend, a powerful low pressure system is forecast to sweep across the Midwest and into New England by Monday delivering a mixed bag of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. Snow will cause travel headaches from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region into eastern Ontario and Quebec, but the system will luckily spare the major metropolitan areas of the Northeast from any major travel headaches as rain will be the dominant precipitation type. Once this system passes through, a rush of bone-chilling, Arctic air will swoop down across the Eastern 2/3rds of the nation bringing the coldest air so far this season. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the teens in the Upper Midwest and lower 30s for the major cities in the Northeast through Wednesday.

Maximum temperatures for Monday December 13th, 2010

So where can you find a retreat from this cold weather? The Caribbean, southern California, Mexico, and….. Greenland? It’s true, southern Greenland will be WARMER than much of the Midwest and Northeast states from Monday through Wednesday of next week. Actually, southern Greenland will be warmer than almost every location in Great Britain as well. This upside-down weather pattern is thanks to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern, which will help to plunge cold, Arctic air southward from Canada into the U.S. Meanwhile, the negative NAO pattern sets Greenland up for warmer than normal temperatures. Images below from www.weathertrends360.com show the temperature differences for the upcoming week for Philadelphia, PA and Nuuk, Greenland. Sign-up for free on www.weathertrends360.com for more forecasts from around the world up to a year in advance.

Retailers in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. can expect a triple digit surge in year-over-year demand for volatile categories like portable heaters, air filters and electric blankets during this cold surge as temperatures will trend -10F to -30F colder than last year. Less volatile categories like hand lotions, apparel, auto batteries and pantry loading food categories will experience strong double digit increases. Temperatures will start to moderate during the 2^nd half of the week with temperatures returning to near or slightly below normal by the following week. In fact, southern Greenland will also return to more normal values with temperatures trending cooler than the eastern U.S.

U.S. NOVEMBER 2010 SUMMARY: November 2010 was the first month since May 2010 to trend colder than last year for the nation as a whole. All 4 weeks of the retail November trended colder than last year with some of the greatest y-o-y changes occurring during the Black Friday weekend which was the coldest in over 20 years. While precipitation trended greater than last year, this was the 6^th driest November in 18+ years. Snow trended much higher than last year with the 7 ^th most snowfall in 18+ years for the nation as a whole. Up to a foot of snow fell in parts of Minnesota during the 2^nd week of the month as a powerful storm rolled across the Upper Midwest; the following week, the 1^st major storm of the season swept into the West delivering heavy rain to lower elevations and heavy snow to the Sierra Mountains.

The most important retail period of the month was, of course, the Black Friday weekend. Cold weather was a positive during this period as holiday shoppers loaded up on both gifts and must-have cold weather categories. Another positive for gifts and store traffic was very dry weather across the nation with 95% of the country staying dry. Snow coverage was much greater this year with 36% of the nation covered in snow (most in 10 years) versus 8% last year. While snow can cause disruptions to store traffic, much of this snow had already fallen by Black Friday so disruptions were minimal and the snow covered landscape helped to get consumers in the Winter mindset.

Pent-up demand for cold weather categories following an exceptionally warm October likely led to double and triple digit sales gains for seasonal products like electric blankets, pantry loading foods, heavy outerwear, car batteries, etc. Much more snow this year will have led to very strong increases for snow and ice removal products as well. Reports of flu are down considerably from last year (thanks to the warmer start to Fall) which is another boost for store traffic and gift sales, but an obvious negative for Drug Stores. High end retailers are expected to come out on top this month with Drug Stores expected to underperform. Given all the positives of the month including: favorable weather, decreased flu cases and easy comparisons to last year, WTI expects same-store-sales results to come in well above expectations.

U.K. NOVEMBER 2010 SUMMARY:  November 2010 closely mirrored the trends of October 2010 with a warmer y-o-y start to the month, followed by an intrusion of colder, Arctic air. That Arctic air helped to tie 2010 with 1998 for the 3^rd coldest November in 18+ years. With frigid air entrenched across the U.K., snow became much more widespread by the final week of the month as Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern and eastern England all received measurable snow. Precipitation trended much drier than last year with every week except week 2 trending drier than last year. Week 2 featured 2 powerful weather systems that produced snow in the Scottish Highlands, heavy rain and severe gales elsewhere. For the U.K. as a whole, November 2010 trended the coldest in 12 years and 8th driest in 18+ years.

Milder and drier conditions at the beginning of the month were unfavorable for seasonal categories, however, Guy Fawkes Night related food categories benefited from unusually mild night time temperatures. Colder and wetter trends during the 2^nd week of the month provided a boost for cold weather categories, but flooding and power outages due to strong storms may have tempered footfall. The last half of the month was the most favorable for cold weather categories as much colder, Arctic air provided ample opportunities for seasonal categories like heavy outerwear, electric blankets, pantry loading foods and body lotions with double to triple digit increases in y-o-y demand. Snow and ice removal products also got a lift as snowfall during the final week of the month was the most widespread since 1993. Colder weather was an overall positive for November and should be reflected in sales results for seasonal categories, but consumer uncertainty continues to soften final sales results.

G-20 NOVEMBER 2010 SUMMARY:  Temperatures across the G-20 trended -0.4^o C colder than last year with the greatest y-o-y change in western and northern Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia and much of South America. While colder weather was a boon for the northern hemisphere’s seasonal Autumn categories, colder weather in Australia and South America made retailer’s lives there a bit more difficult as seasonal Spring category demand was subdued. Much warmer y-o-y trends could be found in high latitudes of North America, Africa, Asia and eastern Europe. Russia, which has been no stranger to exceptionally warm weather this year, saw unusually warm Autumn temperatures during the first half of November as temperatures were about +10^o C warmer than normal, a negative for cold weather products. In fact, Moscow broke record temperatures on 5 different days in November.

Records were also broken as the Atlantic Hurricane Season and eastern North Pacific season came to a close on the 30^th. The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season tied 1887 and 1995 for the 3^rd most active with 19 named storms, meanwhile, the eastern North Pacific saw the fewest number of named storms since the mid-1960s with 7 storms. Hurricane Tomas in the Caribbean caused extensive damage to Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, the Grenadines, and Haiti where heavy rains contributed to a growing cholera epidemic. Cyclone Jal caused record-breaking rainfall in India and Sri Lanka with satellites estimates of over 600 mm of rain in southern India. Before Jal formed into a Cyclone, it caused trouble in Malaysia and Thailand as a tropical low pressure system dumping heavy rain which displaced thousands of people and disrupted transportation. The commercial capital of southern Thailand, Hat Yai, was particularly affected by the storm as water accumulated up to 3 meters deep in some places.

U.S. NOVEMBER 2010 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

U.K. NOVEMBER 2010 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

G-20 NOVEMBER 2010 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

Apropos of our last blog “Holiday Shopping Season 2010: Weather to Make Retailers’ Spirits Bright”, Weather Trends International is tracking the threat of a cold blast of air headed for the northern U.S. during the Thanksgiving holiday week. As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, the frozen turkey won’t be the only thing that needs to be thawed out. Cold, Arctic air is projected to sweep across Canada and the northern tier of the United States starting next weekend (11/20 & 11/21) and persisting through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. For the U.S. as a whole, this is shaping up to be the coldest Thanksgiving week since 2003 and the 5^th coldest Thanksgiving week in nearly 20 years. Low temperatures will approach 0^oF across North Dakota and Montana, and temperatures across the northern tier will trend -10 to -20 and even -30^o F colder than last year. Mainly dry weather will accompany the Arctic air mass, however, a bit of snow cannot be ruled out in places like Minneapolis, MN or Seattle, WA. Disruptions to store traffic during the crucial Black Friday weekend should be minimal with very cold weather enhancing seasonal category sales.

Retailers across the northern U.S. should prepare for dramatic increases in demand for cold weather categories. Expect year-on-year demand for air filters, hand & body lotions, fire logs, antifreeze, and pantry loading food items to see strong double digit increases. Very strong double, or even triple, digit gains should be anticipated for car batteries, outerwear and heaters as consumers contend with bitter cold during the holiday week. The chart below shows the temperature change versus last year for the coldest days of the “Thanksgiving Winter Blast” in Chicago, IL; Minneapolis, MN; and Seattle, WA and the expected sales increases (Image is linked to a larger view).

Parts of the East and South will see the arrival of cooler air with this air mass although temperatures will not drop as dramatically as places in the North Central and Northwest. Still, cold weather categories will receive an extra boost from the colder weather with single to double digit increases in demand for body lotions, air filters, rodenticides, hot beverages and soups, and fire logs.